The Network Garden - Mark Sigal's Blog

Seek Your Calling: Inspired by the Shoe Dog

"I'd tell men and women...not to settle for a job or a profession or even a career. Seek a calling. Even if you don't know what that means, seek it. If you're following your calling, the fatigue will be easier to beat, the disappointments will be fuel, the highs will be like nothing you've ever felt." - Phil Knight, Founder, Nike 

I just finished reading 'Shoe Dog,' the biography of Nike founder and long-time CEO, Phil Knight. It's a great story of entrepreneurship, and a fantastic, easy read.

As an entrepreneur, I can tell you there is a LOT of time spent just feeling stupid.

The mistakes, the unforced errors, the letdowns, the people disappointments, etc.

There is a tendency to assume everyone else has it figured out.

Nike is one of the most iconic brands; surely Knight figured it out long ago.

But, the truth in the reading is how many years they sat on the razor's edge, basically sales rich, cash broke, how many life threatening moments they simply did not die but easily could have.

They did not even produce their own shoes until 1971, seven years after their birth. That's also when the Nike name and swoosh logo debuted.

Air Jordans did not materialize until 20 years after their birth, and the eponymous "Just Do It" campaign, which became a rocket ship, did not appear until 1988, 24 years after their birth.  

So much of being an entrepreneur is not dying, persisting, doing better, then doing great (hopefully). So much for the notion of the "overnight success

The Lakers HEART beats again

Wow. This was a fun game. Coherency. Pace. Disrupting passing lanes. When this team leads with Defense...they definitely have some pieces. And those pieces are getting better. Case in point KCP, who has been in a slump, consistently made the momentum plays that got the Lakers going again when their backs were against the wall. Set up Nance's epic dunk.

What Happened In 2017

Great post by Fred Wilson today.

"As has become my practice, I celebrate the end of a year and the start of a new one here at AVC with back to back posts focusing on what happened and then thinking about what might happen. Today, we focus on what happened in 2017."

Read the whole thing, but here are my thoughts on Fred's post.

First and foremost, Fred should be lauded for being an honest broker of his own personal truth, all the while encouraging diverse perspectives. Anyone who has spent any time in the AVC community over the years knows the earnestness by which he cultivates these discussions.

This is such a great post, and the varying responses in the comments section show just how reflexively folks default to false dichotomies and false equivalencies. Truth is always more nuanced, a notion that struggles mightily in the age of social media.

As to Crypto, and the analogs to Internet 1.0/2.0, the good news for most of us coming "late" to the party, is that the party really hasn't started yet. Sure, there are multitudes that will make massive "coin" on speculation and mania, but as the prior periods show, real infrastructure will get built, real industries will rise and real businesses will take flight.

The ascendant periods are decade plus in nature, so focus on what is real and take a real time horizon, and the notion of "missed opportunities" goes away.

As to applicable use cases, borderless/decentralized markets, micro currencies, micro incentives, programmable currencies, validated identity, verified general ledger are all areas ripe for innovation. Don't fall prey to reducing this to the Pets.com analog of delivering dog food at a loss via the Internet. You'll miss the next Amazon.

Re the end of White Male Dominance, I am not as sanguine that this is really happening. For one, the reflexive response by a number of folks to the very term "White Male Dominance" is emblematic that the resistance is tough. The number of white males that believe it is **they** who are being discriminated against speaks to how institutionalized this is.

If you watch Fox News as your primary mouthpiece, you are NEVER hearing the concept of sexism, racism or hate as a real problem, and let's face it, the power of tribalism in our country is extreme.

If anything, the moral of the story is that **demographically** speaking, this is the end of White Male Dominance, but unless the Majority can organize and build working coalitions focused on actual policy, this is just a rallying cry for Trump's 2020 re-election campaign.

Finally, as to the Tech Backlash, I'd say I hope so. There is a simultaneous lack of accountability in the tech business (as was the case with Wall Street before it), the blind notion that if it can be built it should, and a general amorality of the leaders of these tech companies.

I find it laughable that so many reflexively dismiss the impact that Facebook, Twitter and Google had on an election where the outcome was shaped by very few **counties** in very few states. Given the ease by which 2016 showed how a motivated alien party (Russia) could micro target highly charged, often verifiability false messages to tens of millions of people, should trouble everyone.

If it was your home, school, church, workplace or community center, wouldn't you at least want to **know** if the back door was left unlocked for would-be evil doers? I sure would, and do.

The fact that Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai and Jack Dorsey have shown no ethical sense of responsibility to govern their platforms against hate, discrimination and divisiveness speaks to a lack of accountability.

A final thought about disruption is that if history teaches us anything, it's that in the long run, disruption creates far more jobs than it disrupts, but in the short run, the disruption is catastrophic for the disrupted AND the nature of the disruption is uneven, with real losers for which a better tomorrow (seemingly) never comes.

This is where real safety nets are critical, and our lazy notions of capitalism "good," government "bad" needs its own version of 2.0 thinking.

Happy New Year everyone. :-)

My iPhone X Pre-order Debacle: Apple resorts to 'airline level' truthiness

Securing a pre-order reservation for the new iPhone X should have been a "golden ticket" winning moment.

I did my part, staying up late along with countless others rushing to purchase a $1K+ device sight unseen.

But then Apple ran into system issues connecting with my mobile carrier (one of the big two carriers), an issue that affected LOTS of would-be buyers, something subsequently confirmed by the multiple reps that I would speak with at Apple.

Fortunately, Apple had a plan for this scenario, and to my delight, my browser confirmed that an iPhone X was reserved for me, complete with a verified reservation number. Woot!

The message stated that once systems were up and running, I would get a confirmation email, and a click path to complete my order. Double Woot!!

I went to sleep delighted, and woke up the next morning relieved to see, first the confirming email, then a second email that provided the clickable link to complete my order, with the caveat that the order needed to be completed within the next twenty four (24) hours.

The Most Un-Apple of Experiences

Then, the nuttiness began. It would result in more technical issues, culminating in five separate calls (~4 hours of hold and talk time), broken promises, utter double speak by Apple representatives, and finally, the equivalent of a "go pound sand" message from Apple reps, began.

In other words, the most un-Apple of experiences. 

Imagine delight turning to angst, then anxiety, when Apple's link fails to recognize the pairing of my Reservation Number with my Mobile Phone number. Surely, this is a temporary issue.

After several more tries over the next couple of hours, and with the 24 hour clock ticking, I reach out to Apple support.

First, I get a clueless rep, who keeps telling me to start a new order, all the while I'm explaining that this makes no sense, as I'd lose my Reservation, and asking to speak to her manager.

Her manager is texting her as we speak, but refuses to actually speak with me, so I push to escalate, at which point, I get routed to "Jamie" who tells me that Apple knows about these issues, but is overwhelmed with demand, and will resolve this. 

He, in turn, confirms that he sees the same issue when he tries to input my Reservation Number and pair it with my Mobile Number.

He takes my number, and assures me that he'll call back, but never does. Forty five minutes wasted.

With the clock continuing to tick away, I call back more assertively, and get routed to "Jason" in a different customer care group, who gives me confidence that the team is working on these issues.

He gives me a direct number to call including his extension, and pledges to get back to me within the next few hours, noting that the iPhone team is taking a few hours on these cases.

He grabs my device ID, confirms that he's seeing the same issue, confirms that the phone number I am calling him on is the same that I am trying to register the iPhone with, and I am on my way.

Another ninety (90) minutes spent. It's Friday, late afternoon.

Alas, Jason never calls back, and so I call him. Much to my chagrin, I discover that the extension does NOT work.

What. The. Fuck.

I try repeatedly on Saturday, with no luck, as my Reservation expires.

Apple isn't going to screw me, are they?

Sunday I call the number they've provided but avoid the direct extension, and get connected with "Breeana," who is very nice, apologetic, reiterates that this is an issue affecting lots of people, and assures me that Apple's intention is to honor these reservations.

When I reference Jason, she assures that I am talking to the right person, someone senior to her. She gives me her ID, as I am losing faith.  

Another 30 minutes wasted on this cluster-fuck.

Late Sunday rolls around, and still no word from Jason, so I call again, and I connect with "Steven," who affirms what everyone else has said. Apple is working on system issues, they under-resourced and are overwhelmed with demand, but plan to do right by customers, and honor these Reservations.

He encourages me to be patient, and gives me a direct number, which I attempt to call using a different phone, given past issues, and confirm to him that it does not work.

Somewhat sheepishly, he says that Apple has probably turned off the number since they are overwhelmed with demand. So lame. 

Apple Double-Speak: The Bullshit Edition

Tuesday PM, I finally get a call from Jason, who sidesteps why he never called me back, but simply says that this is the first day he has been back in the office.

He tells me that the iPhone team has not been able to complete the link up with my carrier (it's one of the big two, so this is neither exotic, nor complex), and since they can't validate the phone number and carrier linkup, the word from the iPhone team is that I need to reach out to my carrier, and work from there. 

I tell him that what he's saying makes no sense since Apple provided the phone, he has the ID of my iPhone, which I previously provided, and it's specific to the carrier.

Plus, he is literally talking to me on the same phone number that I am trying to get the iPhone X for. There is no missing piece of data in this equation.

I tell him that this is bullshit since Apple has all of the detail they need to **know** the phone number I am trying to transfer and the phone I am trying to transfer from is specific to the carrier. 

He apologizes, but says that this is what the iPhone team is telling him.

I tell him that this is akin to the type of nonsense airlines do when they cancel flights or oversell seats, and rather than take care of the customer, leave the customer twisting in the wind.

I ask to speak to the iPhone team, but Jason says they are not a "customer facing" team.

I tell him that pushing me off to the carrier means that I will lose my Reservation, and instead of getting my phone pre-order as expected on 11/3, the wait time is now 5-6 weeks.

That is flat out shitty service, and I tell him that Apple needs to do better here. After all, I've bought a dozen iPhones over the years, countless iPads, iPods, AirPods, Apple TV's, Macs, etc.

He puts me on hold, and after another 7-8 minutes, says he's been told there's nothing more Apple can do for me.

Another 30 minutes of my life that I will never get back, and an Insanely Not Great experience with Apple, who has chosen not to honor my Reservation, and sent me to the end of the line.

The Inevitability of CRYPTO MARKETS taking flight and the Amazon case

I am sure that this will seem obvious in retrospect, but EVERY marketplace should be able to cultivate a value add cryptocurrency strategy.

Think, for example, of how many levels Amazon could one day build micro strategy "tiers" around.

The easy ones that come to mind are:

• Amazon Prime
• Sell on Amazon
• Amazon Web Services
• Amazon Devices (Kindle, Fire, Alexa)
• Private Label (Amazon Basics)

Amazon Coins could be doled out according to Levels of Engagement, Loyalty, Promotion or Revenue Generation.

For Amazon, it's an opportunity to be a Market Maker in MONEY, providing Exchange services at varying rates for: A) Cash; B) Amazon Goods and Services; and C) Digital Goods.

To be clear, Amazon is just one fleshed out example.

All marketplace builders should bake crypto into their strategies from the get go.

Do you agree, or have a different perspective?

Animojis are Real Time Motion Capture 1.0

Animojis are the 1.0 version of Real Time Motion Capture.

It’s easy to see how these grow into Persona Apps, and how this all scales to 3.0 experiences.

After all, Apple knows Lens, Capture and Display as software, hardware and service layers.

10 Things I liked about Apple's iPhone Event

Watching the Apple Event to Announce the New iPhones, I was struck by the following:

1. Only Apple can do what Apple does not only because they're integrated, but because each component piece is fully realized, and their is a very clear narrative focus on what outcomes the device and specific set of capabilities enable.
2. The new narrative builds heavily on the sense of AI and being Neural, with Neural element harnessing device level capabilities.
3. Apple harnesses camera and sensory capture to create the kind of visual experiences that were once duty bound to high end, professional grade, predominantly analog equipment.
4. Augmented Reality is one area where the company is simultaneously putting a stake asserting its intent to lead the market and make it strategic through AR Kit, and the kind of hardware, silicon, software and services that are part of a very robust system.
5. Face ID is a holy shit, WTF notion. For one, it is always on. For another, that means it is always watching you, noting only taking a fingerprint of the contours of your face, but watching how it changes over time. Establishing that from a security standpoint, whereas Touch ID was a 1 in 50,000 change of someone having the same fingerprint as you, Face ID is a 1 in 1 million value proposition. The notion that Face ID is 20X more secure than Touch ID is a "stop the film" and discuss. This makes the idea of Face ID working with Apple Pay logical, but super cool just the same.
6. Animojis feel like they could be a wedge into being a new form of personal communications.
7. AirPower and the way that iPhones, AirPods and Apple Watches will be able to charge when resting on a paid, and the user experience around same is well thought out.
8. Phil Schiller is the bridge to Steve Jobs, and he is nothing but earnest and sincere in his approach. Such a good presenter. In that same regard, Tim Cook did great, as did Craig Federighi. Today's Apple is more like a classic rock band, where Performance matters, and each presented gets to perform a solo.
9. Jony Ive only seems to exists in these events, as the commercial (WATCH THE IPHONE X VIDEO - WOW) that synthesizes what Apple has just built. I am not sure what this means but minimally, one hopes he can live on as an Animoji.
10. Segmentation is an Apple Advantage. To do what Apple does, they have to make major bets of silicon, supporting accessories, system assembly and fabrication, and then get the developer tools, the software, the marketplaces and channels right. But, boy, look at how they leverage it (see below). From the low end, small form factor iPhone SEE to the futuristic, likely production constrained iPhone X, this is textbook segmentation.

(IDEATION) SampleCoin: Sample, Overlay and Play as a Shared Service

Let me paint a picture. Between the Cameras in our mobile devices, the Media we consume and can readily call upon via a Google Search, and whatever Apple comes out with to cover the eyes - iLens - and the fact that the Cloud is pretty much ever-functioning, what once was impossible to effort is now push button simple and "bottomless." 

Now, imagine a Video Sampling service that can sample from ANY source, has powerful cropping tools, and can then encapsulate the sample by wrapping it in an "Overlay Player."

Because this is an Overlay, it can run independent of the Sample and Extended as a Shared Service. As a Shared Service, the sample could by part of your Library, Socially Shared and Conjoined by Conversational Threading.  

It could be the Ignition Code of Different Types of Apps (e.g., Messaging Apps), and/or the Sample can be served up as Chum for Machine Learning.

In such an environment, you could see a robust marketplace of content creators and editors form. One way to reward community participation is by creating cryptocurrency in the form of community-specific tokens, or sample coins (SampleCoin).

There are numerous ways that you can reward participation, incent loyalty and give participants the lure of upside in a domain specific store of value.

PLATFORM THOUGHTS: iPhone, meet the iLens

What if the high end iPhone had a special accessory called the iLens? The way that it would work is that you'd insert the iPhone into the iLens. The iLens would function like actual eyeglasses, albeit a special pair optimized for different visual Passthrough, Overlay and Immersive modes. 

The platform is iOS; it's Siri, ARKit, Messages, Video Capture and Apple ML. It's AirPods and Apple Watch, all interconnecting

Like every other Apple Device, iLens has its own set of Native Sensors and Capabilities specific to the Device.

Why Did Apple Give the HomePod an A8?

Let me be clear, I want a HomePod. Two or three of them, in fact.

For no more than the HomePod’s stated reason for being — reinventing the Home Music Experience with a Multi Room solution that channels 40 Million songs in your pocket — I want this.

Apple gets Music and Great Sound. I love my AirPods, I loved every iPod and iPhone I’ve had specifically because it is so great to listen to.

Apple delivering In-Home Sound with HomePod is a no brainer for me to embrace. It piggy backs on my Apple Music library. Now, with AirPlay 2, it becomes Multi Room.

Apple is so smart to focus on Multi Room sound, and doing that really well, and only tangentially, as the Smart Speaker that would out-duel Alexa.

There is real artistry that Apple is putting together here, and it’s a particular skill that Apple uniquely possesses.

That’s why I believe HomePod will be a big hit, and why pundits that focus on the device’s price or Alexa/Google Home comparisons, miss the point.

It’s not about the Ingredients. It’s about the Integration.

But, all of this begs a simple question. If all that Apple wanted to do was deliver great sound, do you really think an A8 Chip would have been necessary? Purely for Music?

It says here that the HomePod becomes your HomeBrain, and that all of that computational and processing horsepower in the HomePod is earmarked to turn the HomePod into a Machine Learning based Watcher and Caretaker.

In the Cloud, but with all of your Secrets kept Safely Encrypted…On-Device.

Imagine a device that can recognize your entire household, its patterns, its sounds. Capturing, categorizing and actively watching for: 1) Your Changing Heath Patterns; 2) Topics You Are Interested In; 3) Every Show You’ve Ever Watched or Song You’ve Listened To; 4) Great Bits of Food and Drink You’ve Made; and 5) Your Home Security, listening for Strangers that shouldn’t be in your house.

That’s why Apple gave HomePod an A8 Chip.

With ARKit, iPad becomes a Magical Piece of Glass

The BIG idea is that iPad is a Magical Piece of Glass that can be translated into anything that you want.

Augmented Reality on iPad is Really Good to the point of being Magical. Apple has planted the flag that AR is strategic, touting that they will have the largest AR Platform in the world.

From what I saw, Apple’s ARKit is going to enable numerous “holy shit” good user experiences, applications and games that harness the iPad as a Magical Piece of Glass.

At the recent Apple Worldwide Developers Conference, the team helmed by Peter Jackson (creator of ‘ Lord of the Rings’ trilogy) Wingnut AR

Wingnut is truly magical in the way that it uses the iPad as a Looking Glass.

The idea is that a deeply animated world overlays onto whatever is in view when you look through the iPad. The way that the Real and Overlay Realms are stitched together is sagely smart.

Objects in ARKit can be incredibly realistic and fluid in their motion. So, too, does ARKit use the Display to Measure Distances, Define and Map Boundary Domains, and Dynamically Create Overlays.

The various disciplines that Apple has brought together to crack the AR code is very impressive.

In the days and weeks ahead, we will see a LOT of compelling apps built on ARKit.

But know this. Given Apple’s expertise in display technology, Apple will come up with an Eyewear Family -- iGlasses -- that delivers Overlay and Immersive Experiences.

POST MORTEM: Apple WWDC Keynote — The New Apple is the Old Apple

 

WWDC ’17 was an opportunity to see what the road ahead looks like 16 years after iPod, and ten years after iPhone.

Let me begin with the end. The New Apple is the Old Apple. For the first time, Apple feels fully post Steve Jobs, while fully embodying what Jobs created.

I was so very impressed, and genuinely WOW’d by the breadth, depth and specificity of Six ‘Insanely Great’ Moments:

1. Apple Pay Cash is the Next Step. As an enthusiastic user of Apple Pay(mostly at Whole Foods, but also, occasional online purchases), I can attest to how magical the experience is of pulling out your iPhone, and having the device recognize the full context and logistics of the transaction. Via Touch ID, with a secure touch, you are done. Disclaimer: I have thought a lot about Digital Currencies, including Bitcoin, Block Chain and Tokens, and the realness of your iPhone as a Store of Value becomes even more so with the new Person to Person payment support coming to iMessage. Apple Pay and Touch ID make it very potent for a lot of use cases. Apple is starting to chew up a bigger portion of my wallet.

2. Machine Learning, Machine Learning and More Machine Learning.Apple has gotten the message that Machine Learning (ML) is the wellspring of the future. While they’ve baked ML into iTunes, iPhoto and Siri, they are now striving to make adding Machine Learning capabilities to numerous Media, Test and Task Libraries that are Pre-Trained. Trained Libraries are like perfected algorithms, whereas true Machine Learning looks for patterns, captures the data set systematically, and then gives you methods to amplify the learnings from the data set. Machine Learning is simultaneous in its infancy, and an Atomic Bomb that is ready to go off. In the same way that the ubiquity of being able to “Google it” changed everything, Machine Learning is the New Transistor. The applications are legion.

3. Augmented Reality is Really Good. Apple touted the fact that they will have the largest AR Platform in the world. From what I saw, by pushing out predictable iPhone, iPad and iMac releases, Apple is giving rise to applications that are “holy shit” good. Case in point, Peter Jackson, he the maker of the Lord of the Rings movies, is releasing something called Wingut AR, which has to be seen. It’s truly magical in the way that it uses the iPad as a Looking Glass. The various disciplines that Apple has brought together to crack the AR code is very impressive. All of this is built using Apple’s new ARKit, which in the days and weeks ahead, will yield a LOT of compelling apps. Of note is that both the AR and VR app below are powered by the Unreal Engine, Outlook: Given Apple’s expertise in display technology, Apple will come up with an Eyewear Family that deals in Overlay and Immersive Experiences.

 

4. Virtual Reality is Opposite Side of the Augmented Coin. One thing that’s important to understand about the way Apple approaches platforms, is that while they treat each form factor as stemming from the same OS core, they also cultivate each form factor as its own derivative. This has certain advantages. I wrote this some time back (see “Holy Shit! Apple’s Halo Effect”), and it’s more true than ever. Consider the Star Wars Virtual Reality demo by ILM/Epic Games, which you should watch, as it’s terrific…and thought provoking. It robustly piggy-backs on the power and software capabilties of the Mac to create a fluid, magically immersive experience. It also provides a frame of reference for understanding the distinction between AR and VR. The former Overlays reality, whereas the latter delivers a Fully Immersive Reality. It says here that Apple will be very at home in both AR and VR domains. Apple feels poised to deliver something that will open a new front for Developers, Devices and Deep User Engagement by extending Apple’s dominance in delivering Retina like Displays, Dynamic Visual Environments, Hi Fidelity Sound, Audio Control, Touch, Tilt and Siri.

 

5. HomePod: Reinventing the Home Music Experience. Let’s go no further than the basics. I love my AirPods, I loved every iPod and iPhone I’ve had specifically because it is so great to listen to. Apple delivering In-Home Sound with HomePod is a no brainer for me to embrace. It piggy backs on my Apple Music library. 40 Million songs in your Pocket…and now, with AirPlay 2, it becomes multi room. Apple is so smart to focus on multi room sound, and doing that really well, and only tangentially, as the Smart Speaker that would out-duel Alexa. But make no doubt, the HomePad does not have an A-8 chip in it, to solely deliver great sound. That noted, it smartly uses technology to optimize sound for a specific room environment, and for multiple speaker configurations in a same room to better orchestrate their settings. This is not coming out until the end of the year, so Apple still has to deliver the actual product, but if delivered, it will crush it during the holiday season.

HomePod
With amazing sound, spatial awareness, and the vast Apple Music library, HomePod takes the speaker to a whole new level…www.apple.com

6. iPad Native Experience — iPad Pro. Apple finally got religion about what makes an iPad Pro a distinct iOS experience, versus merely being the bigger screen cousin of the iPhone. The new iOS does things like enable Drag and Drop, toggle between numerous Screen Modes, and generally embrace the BIG idea that iPad is a Magical Piece of Glass that can be translated into anything that you want. Watch the video below, and see what I mean.

iPad Pro
iPad Pro introduces our most advanced Retina display, the powerful A10X Fusion chip, iOS features tailored for iPad…www.apple.com

I’d be remiss if I didn’t close by noting that sadly, there was no Jony. Not even as the voice guy on a cool Apple commercial.

Sabbatical, Secret Project or Sayonara?

Why is Amazon buying Whole Foods — Two Thoughts

First off, WOW! Never question the cajones of Jeff Bezos. He plays to win, and win BIG.

Two quick thoughts on the “why” side of this $13.7B deal. One, is that Amazon Prime is the core Lock-in that drives engagement and loyalty within Amazon, relative to other Commerce options (online or offline). I wrote previously on this notion HERE.

Amazon Fresh is the ‘last mile’ since it deals in a same-day type of customer spend and of course, grocery is a recurring spend. Plus, Amazon has already committed the spend to having its own fleet of delivery vehicles (competing UPS, USPS), so being their own delivery logistics is a path that is **already** happening.

Thus, Whole Foods is a gateway to converting the Amazon Prime customer to Amazon Fresh, and for those of us who have Instacart in our markets, it’s clear there is a healthy base of customers willing to pay for the personal shopper, direct to door experience in Grocery.

(Side note: probably not a great day for Instacart, who built their business on the back of Whole Foods, and will likely get squeezed out, if they don’t find a better M&A path.)

Two, is that the Whole Foods customer is already using online pay services like Apple Pay, so the notion of what Amazon is trying to do with the cashless customer paying exclusively through mobile device in store, means that Amazon gains a platform and international footprint to test out a lot of concepts, such as Amazon Go, Amazon Locker, Amazon Alexa, and cross marketing of products that are complimentary to a grocery customer (buy this new Circulon pan with your order, and have it shipped to you by tonight.

These are wild and interesting times for retail, but one now only has to look at what Amazon and Starbucks are doing in using technology in transformative ways, to understand that the wild ride is not going to slow down any time soon.

Augmenting Reality: My Brush with Pokémon Go

When I first heard about Pokémon Go, I knew that it could be the one to 'nail' Augmented Reality.

First off, it was mobile, and the notion of a tightly geofenced overlay to the physical world was potent.

It was also inevitable in the sense that this idea has been in many people's heads (myself included) for a long time, but never had its moment of excellence when the total composition (package) came together.

This reminded me of the words of Intel pioneer, Federigo Fagin, who once said, "Because there is a certain inevitability about inventions of this sort... the real contribution lies, first, in making the idea work.”

In mobile, the iPhone has an excellent dual function camera and display, perfect for visual overlay.

Add in touch, tilt, pinch-zoom and flick, and app-lify it, and the medium takes off.

In any event, after indoctrinating myself in the basics (barely) of capturing Pokémon, I hit a prolonged dry spell where landmarks that were within reach required Pokémon Coins that I did not have.

Frustrated, I headed home, but left my iPhone on with the App running.

Suddenly, the App sprung to life and there was Pokémon in the area.

I could not pass up this opportunity, so I pulled over the car.

Shortly, as I captured Squirtle (to your right), I noticed out of the corner of my eye that the Sheriff's car was approaching slowly.

Nervously, I rolled down the window. "Is there any problem?" the officer asked.

No, I said, adding that I had to do something on my phone, and I thought it best to pull the car over.

He seemed to appreciate that, and wished me a good evening.

I didn't tell him why I pulled over was to capture a Pokémon.

Archetypes of the New Way: Thoughts on A/R, Machine Learning, Intelligent Automation and New Interfaces

We are entering a New Normal, a subject richly codified by Kevin Kelly in his thought-provoking new book, 'The Inevitable.'

The Next Wave, which is quickly becoming the New Way, is starting to become ubiquitous.

Soon, it will be so embedded in the fabric of everything, that it's essentially 'invisible.'

Examples of the New Way readily come to mind. With Uber, you can push a button, get picked up and taken anywhere on demand. And it's a GREAT experience.

With Airbnb, you can push a button, and secure lodging anywhere in the world. And it's a transformative experience.

With Amazon, you can have anything delivered to your door at the push of a button. And you can even return it, too. Incredible, right?

But, what's coming next are the Archetypes for long heralded concepts, such as robotics, machine learning and augmented reality.

By archetypes, I mean emblematic examples that provide the pattern recognition from which more complex, more integrated instances (systems) will iterated and be created.

Consider the case of Tesla, with their Auto Pilot function. What does Tesla's Auto Pilot say about the future of software driven robotics?  

One the one hand, it was the failure of this function that resulted in the death of one of their Tesla owners.

This is a critical reminder that new technologies can yield dramatically unintended consequences, and so the pros and cons of enabling specific functions must be evaluated. "Public beta" can't be a disclaimer for not having a full formed safety plan.

That noted, entrepreneur and blogger, Marco Arment, wrote a seriously crisp assessment of Tesla Autopilot that captures just how intricate -- and powerful -- these systems can be.

Tesla has built FIVE different subsystems that comprise its Autopilot capabilities -- Automatic Emergency Breaking; Autopark; Summon; Adaptive Cruise Control; and Autosteer -- some of which Marco dismisses, a few of which he uses faithfully.

In baseball terms, software robotics is the second batter in the first inning of a nine inning baseball game. But, it's also a very real, directed approach to solving specific problems that make humans better, safer drivers.

Meanwhile, machine learning has paved the way for what we think of as Artificial Intelligence. Google's Image Search is based upon a deep learning system that literally learns what a face looks like, the parts that comprise it, the pieces that fit together a certain way, and the degrees of variance that can be applied across its feature set.

What can you do with all of this goodness? Well, the ability to autonomously recognize sophisticated objects, decompose them into base elements, and then support precious, assembly, overlay and masking logic is a central recipe in enabling augmented reality.

One archetypal example is MSQRD (masquerade), an app for iPhone and Android that uses facial detection and recognition to map a library of dynamic masks to the contours of your face...even in video.

Don't take my word for it, download MSQRD on your phone, and you'll be hooked.

The next level up from this is creating overlay experiences so real that you don't know that a car cruising on a race track in a TV commercial is actually a sensor wrapped shell optimized for motion capture and digital car body overlay (see: Blackbird).

Watch the video to get a sense of how the car advertising business could change fairly dramatically in short order.

And, of course, there is Pokemon Go, which uses your camera, physical space, graphical overlay and location based services to create an interactive universe in the real world. It, too, is an archetype for the social, mobile and play capabilities of augmented reality.

Consider, the curious case of the Amazon Echo, the speaker that listens to you.

If I were to tell them a decade ago that people would put voice capture devices in their household, you would have assumed I was talking about the People's Republic of China.

But, no, I am talking about Amazon. The same company that transformed the book in the way Apple transformed the song. The  same company that created a massive cloud array of services for Software Developers through Amazon Web Services and for Merchants through Selling on Amazon.

Echo takes Siri and goes further, asserting persistence as a staple. As a home or office bound device always tethered to electrical power and network connectivity, this is a reasoned value exchange for a broad swath of users. 

Users trade privacy, and trust that Amazon really only is listening in when the user says 'Hey Alexa...' In exchange, they get an software driven agent ready to handy a number of daily tasks on verbal command.

Amazon, after all, is the same company who envisioned a bot driven future through the human powered Mechanical Turk. 

Echo closes the loop.

Finally, consider the Simulation goodness of playing NBA 2K. The experience of playing a competitive basketball game that 'feels' like real basketball tells me that the first 'holy shit' virtual worlds will be a better, smarter version of NBA 2K, but bot-infused, location-aware, physical and augmented.

Full immersion is coming, but augmentation is where the Next Way is coming to life. It's the one with a well framed set of archetypal experiences from which to broaden forth.

Side Notes and Links:

1. If you really wanted to accelerate machine learning, would you put more energy into ENCODING or INTERPRETING?
2. If AI, Deep Learning and Machine Learning are of interest, this video is DEEP, but worth it
3. If we all agree that some combination of artificial intelligence and machine learning is obvious and inevitable, what is the platform play?