This chart is illuminating, I think. Wal-Mart is so completely instutionalized that the present, past and future seem "priced in." It's obviously a great company, but how can you argue any differently?
Meanwhile, Google is making a ton of money, is completely dominant in search advertising, and has executed their moat strategy very effectively.
Yet, when positioned side-by-side against Amazon and Apple, it too, is far removed from tremendous "upside surprises."
Netting it out: Apple and Amazon still seem to know how to pull rabbits out of their hats, and their stocks reflect it.
It's something to think about in handicapping the next stage of the media tablet market, and the respective ecosystems that will emerge, sustain or get marginalized around same.
UPDATE:Steven Cains (@cains) notes via twitter that it's not really fair to compare $WMT due to dividends (Wal-Mart pays em; Apple, Amazon and Google don't). It's an obviously fair point, but if anything, it seems to affirm the macro narrative that Wal-Mart's got predictability (in all forms) priced in.