My goal is to write one 'Pattern Recognition' a week. Just the top 3-4 stories that stayed under my skin. Here's what stuck this week:
- Passbook is Apple's eWallet: In my analysis of Apple's forthcoming iOS 6 (part of my WWDC Keynote article), I saved my biggest WOW! for Passbook, noting that while Apple presented it as a consolidated place to organize things like gift cards, flight itineraries, movie tickets and the like, I believe that it's the true beginning of Apple’s foray into being the defacto eWallet. Happily, I stumbled upon this exceptional Quora thread about Passbook. Definitely worth a read, as I believe Passbook is a game changer. Excerpt: "Apple has entered into the mobile wallet marketplace by sticking just a toe in the ocean of mobile payments. In the process, Apple will change just about all aspects of discounts, ticketing and payments."
- Fragility - How to Detect Who Will Go Bust: Nassim Nicholas Taleb is unquestionably one of my favorite writers/thinkers. Fooled by Randomness provided intellectual framing for comprehending how biases cloud our judgement, and how we frequently misfactor the role of chance. It also introduced the concept of Black Swan events into our lexicon (although Fooled by Randomness is a better read than Black Swan). His newest book is called Antifragile, and in it he espouses a methodology for figuring out if our miscalculations or misforecasts are more harmful one way or the other (than they are beneficial), and how accelerating the damage is. This article provides a nice overview. Anything pertaining to risk mitigation is a worthy ounce of prevention in these turbulent times.
- Is the TV Business Starting to Collapse? I've read many arguments that TV programming is destined to go ala carte and unbundled, breaking the stranglehold that the cable, satellite and broadcast providers hold on consumers. This piece by Henry Blodget does an excellent job of detailing the many reasons this could happen, but I just don't see it happening any time SOON. Someday, sure, but not in the next 5-10 years, I believe. Why do I say this? One, is that the affilate fees that the cable companies pay to the content providers (e.g., ESPN, Bravo, TNT) are the consummate golden handcuffs. The day that ESPN wants to go ala carte is the day that Comcast can stop paying ESPN $4.69 per household per month. Plus, there is the factor of the selfish gene at work; namely, even if the content creators and network operators saw the wisdom of embracing new models, the individuals in power seats have a vested interest in protecting their fiefdoms, something that I blogged about HERE. "Not on my watch," is the unspoken operating logic here. How about Apple? Won't their rumored TV disrupt the business? First off, I believe that they are a more likely set-top box play than a TV maker, but more to the point, when Apple built the iPod, they worked through the record labels, didn't replace them. When they launched iPhone, they worked through the carriers, didn't replace them. I think the same equation will play here. Two related takes on this story. One is that our thirst for live sports (and perhaps, live content in general) is insatiable. It's why ESPN is ESPN, and why ESPN is the true profit center for Disney. Two is that original programming becomes the differentiator for long-term success. It's the reason that HBO can command the fees it does, and maintain high subscriber retention. It's why people care about AMC (Mad Men, Breaking Bad), and it's why TBS/TNT is no longer the place that syndicated shows go to die (although they do plenty of that, too).One other moral of the story is that creating this TV programming that viewers are loyal to is A LOT harder to produce, distribute and market than news content, which is why blogs could kills newspapers, but YouTube hasn't killed the networks. When someone figures out a different format or production methodology that changes the equation, look out.
