The Network Garden - Mark Sigal's Blog

NIKEiD and the Uber-ization of Global Logistics

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." - Arthur C. Clarke

"You mean, I simply push this button, and it just shows up?"

**It**, in this case, is the magical Uber Black Car; magical being relative to the pedestrian, unreliable yellow taxi.

What Uber did in re-thinking the gray space between taxis and private car services is instructive.

Logistically speaking, they rejiggered the following:

1. The Ordering Process (it's push-button simple via an app; no interminable waiting on hold for a dispatcher)
2. The Transparency of Availability (you can literally see how many cars are nearby, and how quickly your car will arrive)
3. The Nature of the Transaction (no money ever comes out of your pocket; you never have to think about the tip again)
4. The Reliability of Your Order (you are notified on your mobile when Uber arrives, the driver confirms that you are indeed the orderer; no more pickups that don't show up, or taxis 'stolen' by pedestrians on the street)
5. Your Relationship to the Driver (most drivers feel like entrepreneurs; Uber is a new revenue source for them; all drivers are identifiable, and subject to being rated and reviewed)

Part of the magic of Uber is that the company is able to create this transformative experience without owning any of the cars or hiring a fleet of drivers.

Given the above, is it any wonder then that "uber-ization" has become my go-to term for industry re-invention through new combinations of design, user experience, workflow and logistics -- as enabled by broadband, mobile and the cloud. 

NIKEiD: Re-Thinking What a Shoe Can Be

The power of great technological waves and re-invention in general is not merely that they change how things are made, or what they cost. 

Rather, it's that they change our concept of what is possible, and what a given medium can be.

In the realm of motion pictures, adding sound (and talking) to films, completely transormed the industry.

In the case of ecommerce, the boundarly-less and friction-free nature of Amazon, has completely disrupted retail.

In the realm of mobile, building a unifed platform around iPhones, iPads, iTunes and iOS, has catalyzed the post-PC era. 

I thought about this truth yesterday, as the pair of fully customized NIKEiD shoes showed up at my door.

Not only were they beautiful (okay, beauty is in the eye of the beholder), but what left me feeling awed was the fact that what had begun as a series of push-button simple clicks in San Francisco, had traveled across the globe, navigating an unimaginably intricate manufucturing and logistics process to find its way back to my front door.

The UPS route home alone (see above) shows stops in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines, back to China, Alaska, Kentucky, Oakland, and finally, San Francisco. 

Simply magic, and I wonder how many other products, services and industries are ripe for such reinvention. 

If you are sitting in an industry where commoditization and/or disruption is your future (through de-localization, re-invention and digitization, you need to heed the words of Google CEO Larry Page.

His guidance? "I encourage more companies to do things that are outside their comfort zone. It gives you more scalability."

Food for thought.

Related:

1. Uber-ization: The art and science of reinventing an industry (GigaOM)
2. Retail needs a reboot to survive (GigaOM)
3. You say you want a revolution? It's called post-PC computing (O'Reilly)

6 Takeaways from the Google IO Keynote

"I was frightened...I was excited."
- Bono (on the vibe in England + Dublin in the '70s)

We are at the end of a cycle, and approaching the beginning of a new one.

It's post-global, post-digital, and post-commoditization.

The new cycle is about making the inefficient more efficient, and creating differentiation where commodization exists. 

That we can stare at the rot that consumes so many industries, and simultaneously cheer a record stock market and wonder, "What replaces all of those jobs?" is BOTH terrifying and exciting (READ: 'The Jobs Engine' for thoughts on this topic).

Keep these dual truths in mind in reading this assessment of today's keynote. (Btw, a good capture of the transcript from the keynote is HERE.)

Six key truths stuck in my craw:

1. The Single Biggest 'Tell' of the Keynote: To date, there has been exactly one company that could stop the world when they held an event, and that company is Apple. While Jeff Bezos and Amazon has been pretty close in this regard, when it comes to Google, these events have been easy for the non-Google acolyte to skip. That has now changed, based upon the sheer number of NEW folks who followed the keynote today -- including a significant legion of Apple devotees...myself included.
2. Google is Stealing Apple's PR Mojo: One of the more interesting questions I take from the above is this. If you are Apple, how much do you care that Google is stealing your PR Mojo? What is that worth? Google is grabbing key PR inspiring narratives, be they Glass as the potential game-changing device, Android adoption numbers, self-driving cars, Google fiber, etc. It's translating into an inflated Google stock price, a deflated Apple stock price, and a fundamental shift in the number of stories being written about Google (relative to Apple). In terms of real business, these things are optics, but in the equation of 'perception has a way of becoming reality,' it's also not just pure noise to be ignored. Illustrative of this point is the fact that on StockTwits, the one-month change in message volume for Google is up 55%. For Apple, it's down 25%. It's a not-too-subtle reminder that the battle for all things post-pc is being played on a multi-dimensional chess board, and PR touches the perception domain. A side thought: Google's next thrust on the PR war front should be doing Brand Advertising around Google Maps, as it's illustrative of how Google thinks about and executes services that are great at web, great at mobile, deliver truly native experiences in either environment, and an exercise in composited logic, big data, the cloud, and great workflows. Plus it's the app everyone uses, and the best single example of what Apple does NOT do well. Food for thought.
3. Developer Mindshare: A primary focus of the keynote was on increasing the love and attention that Google is able to secure from software developers. While there was nothing earth shattering announced (although plenty of holes filled, to be sure), it is reflective of Google grokking the seminal truth that developers make or break a platform play. As one twitter commenter noted, "Google is basically shipping everything iOS devs have been asking for since the beginning." That stated, the event was also completely devoid of developer demos (save for Google's own demos), making this feel a bit like Google's passion is reserved for Google services alone. This truth is perhaps why Google really doesn't care what Amazon or Facebook is doing with Android. Nonetheless, it raises the question of how Apple will respond at WWDC? Same question when Amazon announces whatever they are up to next with Kindle Fire.
4. Get in My Belly: On twitter, I quipped, "Should we be concerned that Google's new slogan is, 'Come on, get in my belly!' or that this is the new spokesman?" I am only being slightly tongue-in-cheek, for the simple truth is that for all the platitudes about Google being so open, sometimes it seems that open is just another way of saying, 'onboarding.' After all, Google's openness is generally focused on the areas that they want to compete with and commoditize, whereas where they want to differentiate remains proprietary and protected. Where is the open sourcing of Google Search, Maps or AdWords, anyway? One observation here is that it feels like the big potential loser of all of these initiatives in Music, Play, Maps, Offers, Photos, and Conversations is...wait for it...Facebook! Why? Simply put, Google is getting better at the things Facebook does well quicker than Facebook is getting good at the things that Google does well. Similarly, for Google, social is just one job that you'll hire G+ for, whereas for Facebook, it's job one. Hence, the more Facebook feels compelled to fill your feed with suggested content (ads) or flood it with unrequested crap every time you 'like' something, the worse that Facebook's user experience becomes. Netting it out: Google is getting better at context, design, and compositing of user experience quicker than Facebook is figuring out discovery, dollars, and search. In the big picture, the bottom line is that if your product CAN be enhanced via an algorithm, Google will complete with you eventually. Daring Fireball's John Gruber deliciously picks apart this reality in assessing Larry Page's comment on the 'negativity' of everyone focusing on who Google is competing with.
5. A Unified Theory of Google: While there is a tendency to look at G+ as Google's lame attempt to compete with Facebook, I tend to view it differently. My take is that G+ is ground zero in Google's end-game to figure out: A) How its various services composite together; B) What those integration points look like on the inbound, outbound and metadata side; C) What the user wants to DO within those service containers; and D) How such services run natively in different user environments (iOS, Android, Chrome, Web, or Glass). Similarly, efforts like Play, Offers and Music are best seen as the company finally being ready to make a frontal assault on a billing relationship with consumers (ala Apple and Amazon). It's logical, and it speaks to the company's unlimited ambition, but for Google partners, it should be a clear reminder that the company aims to consume all. Having recently written my assessment of the prospects for Google Glass, it's also worth noting the symmetry between what I heard today and what I saw baked into the Glass user experience. Specifically, I am referring to three things. One, the company's growing arsenal of Knowledge Graphs on the backend. Two, how such graphs feed user Experiences in the form of Answering queries with richer context; Conversing with users via natural language (it's like Siri, but it's useful and it works really well); and Anticipating intent. Three, the use of a dynamic cards model in Google Now for things like reminders, public transit, music, TV, movies, books and recommendations. Everything with Google at this point is about context, meaning and flow.
6. Larry Page is Intense: Google CEO Larry Page closed out the keynote with a meandering sermon that encompassed a vision that was simultaneously frightening and exciting. The man is destined to either win a Nobel Peace Prize, or end up as the 'villain' in a future James Bond film -- maybe both in the same year. While it was a bit too Atlas Shrugged for my taste (it took on 'Who is John Galt?' proportions), I liked the spirit of what amounts to: A) Sensors, Sensors Everywhere; B) Want to run away and join my country? C) Optimism over Negativity and D) A killer quote: "I encourage more companies to do things that are outside their comfort zone. It gives you more scalability." Larry Page rocks, in a mondo, mega-billionaire sort of way, and I mean that as the highest compliment, I think.

Related:

1. Google Glass will soon be invisible – and the new normal (GigaOM)
2. The Jobs Engine: On Indivisibility and Integrated Systems (GigaOM)
3. Mobile Native Publishing: The Rise of Dynamic Content Services (O'Reilly)

 

Google Glass will soon be invisible – and the new normal (New Post @GigaOM)

“There are three sides to every story: Your side, my side, and the truth. And no one is lying.” 
– Robert Evans (“The Kid Stays in the Picture”)

I recently met up with my friend and one-time business partner, Steve Lee, who is product director on the Google Glass project, and before that, ran product management on Google Maps for Mobile.

Other than a quick tour of the device, Steve basically let me dive in, so as to experience Glass with a beginner’s mind. I won’t bother reviewing the basic capabilities and specs, which have been covered exhaustively already.

Instead I want to focus on some of the points that are in debate, and whether I believe that Glass is destined to succeed.

Glass is translucent; designed to be invisible

In “Waves of Power,” David Moschella shows how new disruptive industries begin as verticals, since the complete product solution requires one provider to deliver the whole enchilada.

The new industry continues on this path until the solutions finally reach the “good enough” stage, when the larger trend becomes horizontal orientation, so as to achieve ubiquity, commoditization and the broadest possible ecosystem. (In passing, one can see the battle between Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android in this light.) The endgame, so to speak, is that the technology becomes persistent, embedded and ever-present to the point of being “invisible.”

It’s a paradoxical concept to be sure. On the one hand, the technology is everywhere; how can it be invisible? On the other, it’s because it’s everywhere that we no longer think about it as exceptional – and, equally, grand solutions can anticipate and incorporate its ever-presence.

Read the full post HERE.

UPDATE: This piece has obviously struck a chord with the rank and file at GigaOM, based upon the storm of comments. Check it out.

UPDATE 2: Google just announced a bunch of third-party apps coming to the platform, including Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, CNN, Elle and Evernote. 

Related:

1. You say you want a revolution? It's called post-PC computing
2. Apple's segmentation strategy, and the folly of conventional wisdom
3. Horizontal, Vertical and the Google Path to Riches

 

Why Netflix is betting on Apps over Channels: It's All About Being 'Native'

"Look at the bigger picture." 
- Francis Underwood, House of Cards

Netflix CEO Reed Hastings has written an 11-page essay that's embedded below. It's quite excellent, and lays out his vision for the future of Internet TV (Peter Kafka of AllThingsD has a crisp summary of the key bullet points HERE). 

In particular, it underscores why Hastings' Netflix deserves to be mentioned in the same reverential tones as Apple, Amazon and Google.

For one, there is the clear articulation of a 'North Star' that guides the company forward; namely, winning more of their members 'moments of truth' - i.e., those times when a consumer could play a game, read a book, chat on the phone or watch conventional TV, but chooses Netflix instead.

The virtue of having a North Star is that it instructs clear narrative-driven thinking, tightening focus, process and execution. It is one reason that we readily associate Apple, Amazon and Google as the gold standard companies of their industry, and so few others.

It's also one reason that it almost feels inevitable that at some point, Google (4.3% of their market cap), Apple (2.8% of their market cap) or Amazon (10.3% of their market cap) will **need** to acquire Netflix (I'd add Disney as a dark horse candidate).

After all, TV viewing captures a billion hours a day of consumers' time, and Netflix has created a model whereby 30 million of these consumers are paying a monthly subscription fee for access to the service.

In other words, despite all of the various activities that fight for consumers attention, Netflix is winning at: A) securing members; B) monetizing those members; and C) growing their base through differentiation. 

Talk about **earned attention.**

Netflix is Betting BIG on Apps

It is with that backdrop that I took particular interest in Hastings' assertion that Apps -- not streams -- but Apps --will replace Channels as the primary construct for delivering Internet TV. He mentioned the term 25 times in the document, no less.

I think that there are two things that one needs to keep in mind relative to the "apps" versus "channels" topic. 

One is that a channel is simply a payload, and an app is simply a wrapper for delivering that payload.

It's no different in that context from saying that Apple turned the phone into an app. We don't need to think about it in that context because the phone app does what a phone is supposed to do.

Quite the contrary. We now think of the iPhone as much more than a phone, right?

Two, is the unlike a simple envelope, the wrapper of an app can actually enable to DO stuff; namely, show you related content, extend the context with communications, enable you to share the content, rate it, excerpt it, roll it into a play list, etc.

The point is that an app can do things that a simple stream can not, and Hastings clearly groks that this is about delivering **native experiences.**

This is also why a show like 'House of Cards' launched with the entire Season 1. In Netflix, binge viewing is a native behavior, right?

Along these lines, Hastings specifically dispels the idea of Netflix even having a fixed notion of what constitutes a 'season' in their model.

It's all about being native, something that I have written extensively about, most recently HERE.

Related:

1. Apple’s North Star vs. Earth’s Gravity: Four Takeaways from Apple’s Earnings Call
2. Built-to-Thrive - The Standard Bearers: Apple, Google, Amazon
3. Mobile 'native' publishing: Why our concept of content must evolve in the post-PC era

Netflix Ir Letter