Let me preface my comments about Apple’s new spatial computing platform, Apple Vision Pro, by saying that despite a 30 year career in tech, a period that includes the PC revolution, the rise of the Internet, iPhone, and Social Media, I am NOT an early adopter for early adoption sake.
I am all about utility and functional coherence. Plus, as a platform guy, I know just how hard hardware, software and service platforms are to create and how long they take to develop & cultivate.
I am also an admitted Apple acolyte, having done multiple startups focused on the Apple Ecosystem (dating back to 1994), having sold one startup (Me.com) to Apple, and having written about Apple for over 20 years.
As a result, I went into watching the Apple Keynote, with a heavy dose of skepticism about the compelling-ness of Augmented Reality as a standalone platform. BUT also, a deep belief that Apple is uniquely positioned to execute such a platform, if anyone can.
Let me begin with the end by suggesting that you spend a few minutes watching the film that Apple created to demonstrate the capabilities of Apple Vision Pro, and its vision for spatial computing (click HERE).
I was floored by the demonstration, and laughed approvingly and with the shock of favorable surprise.
It quite literally is the magical Yin to Facebook’s Yang with Zuck’s ridiculous Metaverse vision. Sometimes, a (moving) picture is worth a thousand words.
Three thoughts stood out from the presentation:
- A Wearable Spatial Computer: It was clear from the get-go that Apple does not view Vision Pro as an accessory device, like AirPods or Apple Watch, but rather as a standalone computing experience and a new medium in its own right. One of the first examples was of a virtual Mac style desktop with application icons floating in the space literally in front of your eyes, with apps clickable, launchable and manageable using eye tracking, voice and finger movements only. This befits a system built with 12 cameras, five sensors, six microphones and two different sets of Apple silicon to stitch it all together, all of which is governed by a new OS called visionOS. You can launch infinite screens, and since these screens are boundless, responsive and feature immersive spatial audio, you can literally turn your living room into a backdrop of the Grand Canyon. The use cases for Entertainment, Gaming and Communications are pretty fascinating. Also, Apple did a very smart thing here in designing Vision Pro so that it can run any iOS apps within the device, including Photos, Music and Apple TV, mitigating some of the chicken and egg risk at launch. Disney CEO Robert Iger was the one outside presenter at the event, showcasing clear use cases built around sports, branded characters, movies and gaming, and communicating Disney's embrace of the new platform (though notably, his actual words on what would be ready at launch was Disney+).
- When as Much as If: When it launches early next year, the Apple Vision Pro will “start at” $3,499, which is outside of the realm of most consumers, suggesting that the device is named Pro for a reason. Apple knows that many of the initial buyers will be traditional early adopters, specific business verticals and developers, who will seed development of the platform. To be clear, Apple’s history suggests that within 2-3 generations, Vision Pro will probably be $1,599, or only $99/month, payable over 18 months with Apple Pay. Watching the timing of how this plays out, when and how outside developers embrace, and what the first "native apps" look like, will be Rube Goldberg-ian in its execution, to be sure.
- Only Apple Can Do This: Having watched Apple rise from the Mac company, to the iPod company, and then the iPhone company, a core secret to their success is taking the painful learnings of getting whupped by Microsoft during the PC era; namely horizontal, undifferentiated hardware platforms equals death. That lesson learned, Apple is all about finding performance dependent verticals where the integration across hardware, software, service, developer tools & marketplaces is a core differentiator. I wrote about this fact way back in 2008, when it was clear how Apple’s ability to create platforms that are derived from a common core, but specific to the device’s reason for being, was much more powerful than one size fits all. Hence, MacOS gave rise to iOS, WatchOS and now visionOS. But, it also Apple’s acumen in composite materials, sensors, silicon, display, camera and sound design that make it unique. Generally speaking, most new platforms begin life as vertical systems for performance reasons, before evolving into horizontal, standardized platforms over time. This is the moat that anyone hoping to compete with Apple has to navigate. Few operate with so many core differentiators, including the Apple Ecosystem, Apple Stores, and a cash generation machine that affords Apple the time horizon to reach, aspire, and god willing, get it done.
But the $64,000 question is whether Vision Pro is the next iPhone or Tim Cook’s Lisa, a powerful, innovative but ultimately too complex and too expensive device for the wider market to embrace.
Put another way, what has to go right in what time frame for the platform to succeed?
The answer is unknowable in advance, because unlike the PC, unlike the Internet, and even unlike the iPhone, Vision Pro doesn’t rise from a primordial ooze of clear users and well-grooved use cases.
It’s its own thing.
It’s also the rare case where Apple is running AHEAD of the pack, as opposed to watching, learning and then, and only then, leapfrogging.
Steve Jobs famously encouraged Tim Cook as CEO to NOT ask "What would Steve do" as Tim’s leadership style.
Apple Vision Pro is the most emblematic manifestation of that ideal.
For that reason alone, for good or bad, it will be a scarlet letter of sorts on Tim Cook's legacy at Apple.
I applaud his courage to pursue, and will be rooting for Apple to succeed, which is a funny thing to say about a company with a market cap of $2.8 trillion.
