“The real problem of humanity is the following: We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and 21st Century godlike technology.” — Edward O. Wilson
We live in a world of systems, many of which we remind blissfully under aware of, often to our detriment.
This is not to say we are unfamiliar with the existence of many of the systems that surround us.
In fact, you can probably craft a reasoned narrative about how some or all the following systems work:
- Automobiles (Tesla, Toyota)
- Bodily Functions
- Business (Amazon, Apple)
- Capitalism
- Education
- Entertainment (Disney, Netflix)
- Finance (Bitcoin, Blockchain, Blackstone)
- Manufacturing (Foxconn, Unilever)
- Media (FOX, CNN)
- Politics (GOP, Democrat)
- Science (Pharma, Physics, Biology, Math, Climate Change)
- Social Media (Facebook, Twitter, TikTok)
- Sports: Think Football Schemes, Basketball Systems (Triangle)
- Technology (AI, Nvidia, Robotics)
The winning systems that drive the above domains are supernovas in terms of their breadth, depth, durability, and defensibility.
The companies and institutions that have emerged from these systems could fill a national park full of Mount Rushmores, so potent are the systems they've built.
At their best, these systems generate massive, transformative growth, are all-expanding, always evolving, improving, and deeply profitable.
But systems can also reach points where they become malignant and destructive, posing terrific danger to our psyche, safety, and the stability of our society.
This can lead to increases in structural fragility and yield more crisis “events” (e.g., data breaches, mass shootings, extreme weather, political & social discord).
One horrible truth we have learned from the rise, ubiquity and peak monetization of social media is that human minds can be hijacked.
Specifically, we’ve learned that Facebook could build a set of algorithms optimized on racing users’ minds to the bottom of the brainstem, where maximal engagement is driven by the content that is the most divisive, angriest, and most virulent.
That Facebook would optimize on such odiousness was/is dictated by Peak Monetization, which if you think about it, is a system construct of its own.
AI: The Mother of All Systems
Then there’s AI (Artificial Intelligence), an entirely new kind of system, the ultimate supernova that:
- Ingests all intelligence, in all forms, imagery and workflow patterns.
- Delivers Deep and Wide Generative intelligence.
- Automates the formerly manual, disrupting the cost of Cognitive, Creative and Productive labor.
- Expands and evolves relentlessly, segment by segment, over time.
What’s amazing about AI is that it moves (evolves), from a systems perspective, at a double exponential curve.
How so? As Technology Ethicist, Tristan Harris, observes, “Nuclear weapons don’t invent better nukes, but AI is intelligence, and intelligence can be applied to the software code itself that made AI.”
That means an ungodly amount of innovation and invention in the years ahead emerging from the mainstreaming of AI.
As someone who has built and invested in numerous companies in the technology domain over the past thirty years, I can say with little hesitation that compared to the rise of the Internet, followed by the rise of Mobile, each of which was massive, you haven’t seen anything yet.
But double exponential also means that the downside risk of the unintended or maliciously intended consequences of AI is unfathomably large.
We can’t afford not to deeply root our understanding of how AI systems work in the real world, including the specific dynamics and scenarios that can be destabilizing, or lead to existential risk.
In essence, we’ll need to build systems specific to the task of continuously analyzing and assessing the risks, rewards and probabilistic outcomes of AI, and how best to mitigate against calamity.
Systems Thinking is Mission Critical
For reasons of exposure to and familiarity with the many systems we are surrounded by…
For the goodness of leveraging methodologies proven to work over time…
For competitive readiness…
For better personal and professional mental health…
It should be clear that embracing Systems Thinking is integral to realizing better outcomes.
Understanding is the first line of preparedness.
This is accomplished by defining specific outcome goals, detailing the specific workflows that underlie those goals, and documenting the rules and governance for orchestrating those processes.
From this, one can identify a specific set of “metrics of success,” known as key performance indicators (KPIs), which are then tracked, measured, and benchmarked.
The premise that underlies this thinking is the idea that you manage what you measure.
The goodness here is that there is a natural path to continuous, measurable improvement just through nominally robust quantitative and qualitative analysis.
But the real upside is that because systems are built around holistic, repeatable processes, they excel at delivering automation of tasks that were heretofore, human capital intensive. That will change the underlying economics of many jobs and industries.
Of equal goodness is the fact that the loosely coupled nature of well-designed systems will lend itself to rapid iteration towards best practices.
Netting it out: Systems Thinking is as much a decision to make, a point of awareness and engagement, as it is a formal discipline and practice.
But, know this, change is coming. You are either going to be driving the bus, riding the bus, waiting for the bus, or missing the bus.
Might as well formulate your specific truth, strategy & tactics, and be ready.
