The Network Garden - Mark Sigal's Blog

Getting to the Train Station on Time

In the pursuit of business success, we all struggle with it.

"It could be better."

"It's not quite ready."

"I have so much on my plate right now."

"I didn't get it done."

Sometimes, it's a case of 'better' being the enemy of 'good enough.'

Other times, it's a case of failing to see the forest from the trees.

But, know this.

Whether driven by over-reach, confusion, poor execution or inattention, you MUST recalibrate and lock in.

In moments like these, everything becomes subordinate to Getting to the Train Station on Time.

Your priorities must be clear.

Everyone must commit to a singular purpose.

Don't let anything cloud your intent and focus.

Be specfic on what Getting there means, and Get it Done.

Related

1. Innovation, Inevitability and Why R&D is So Hard
2. On Life as Art, Poetic Truths & Getting Rich
3. The Tyranny of the ALL or NONE: embracing the paradox of the AND in life.

No good deed goes unpunished at the iPhone company

The moral of the story when it comes to the Apple investor is that no good deed goes unpunished. Expect Apple stock to get hammered on Tuesday for what is a very real shortfall in the projections of analysts. 

Of course, the moral of the story here is that Apple specifically told its investors a year ago that it was no longer going to "manage" earnings expectations with pre-ordained beats.

So what happened in the most recent quarter? Apple hit its own sales projections, which if you take the company's specific proclamations at face value, was the real, achievable goal.

Given Apple's unparalleled track record, you'd think that they've earned some benefit of the doubt. Namely, that they actually know what they are doing.

But, purely as a stock, Apple is seen as the iPhone company.

And the picture there is decidedly more complex. At a minimum, iPhone sales growth is flattening (for now). China Mobile could be anything from a moonshot to mediocre.

Footnote: China Mobile is the largest network in the world, with over 750 million customers.

From the tenor of the call, it seems clear that the company misread consumer sentiment (and demand) for the iPhone 5c. What does that say about the Apple innovation engine post Steve?

Domestic sales were very strong, but flat, and there were some rumblings of carriers stretching out the time periods on consumer refresh cycles.

A lot of the attention shifts to emerging markets and Asia driving growth. Very possible, but not guaranteed.

At the same time, you have to be pretty dense to diminish what 51M iPhones in a quarter means in terms of the depth of the iOS platform.

This completely discounts the potential for Apple to culitvate an ewallet (read this story on Starbucks $1.4 billion in quarterly gift cards).

I'm starting to feel pretty strongly that mobile payments will be a front seat item for Apple very soon.

Oh, and there's iPad, which did pretty well too. If there's a device that embodies post pc computing, it's the iPad.

I would love to see the company put more energy towards developing integrator channels.

That way it can penetrate more enterprise-scale verticals, like medical, pharma, field sales, retail and training, where it already has footholds. 

The other big variable is that the Apple retail stores are still humming along.

They host 144 million visitors at their stores each quarter, or about 21,000 visitors per store, per week. 

With ~420 stores open, average revenue per store was $16.7 million, compared to $16.3 million in the year ago quarter. 

By design, Apple's end-to-end-ness remains its biggest advantage.

The company with $158.8 billion in cash (or equivalents), after adding $12 billion in the quarter should get hammered on Tuesday.

It's small thanks for being transparent, disciplined, prolific and purpose-driven.

Speaking of which, let me end this post with this answer from Apple CEO Tim Cook on whether the company is actively pursuing the Mobile Payments space:

"Let me sort of avoid the last part of your question, but in general, we’re seeing that people love being able to buy content, whether it’s music or movies or books, from their iPhone, using Touch ID. It’s incredibly simple and easy and elegant, and it’s clear that there’s a lot of opportunity there.

The mobile payments area in general is one that we’ve been intrigued with, and that was one of the thoughts behind Touch ID. But we’re not limiting ourselves just to that. So I don’t have anything specific to announce today, but you can tell by looking at the demographics of our customers and the amount of commerce that goes through iOS devices versus the competition that it’s a big opportunity on the platform."

Seems near term.

UPDATE: With rumors heating up about Apple’s Mobile Payments plans, PayPal wants in as an Apple partner (highly unlikely to happy). 

Related

1. 9 logical applications for iBeacons
2. NIKEiD and the Uber-ization of Global Logistics
3. Cry Babies: The Strange, Confusing Path of the Apple Investor

10 questions to help you write better headlines

Let's face it, the headline is...the envelope, the tweet, the forward-along and the subject line.

It's the moment of truth when your audience either gets engaged, or moves on.

That's why this quicklist of 10 questions to ask while writing a headline is worth a read:

1. Is the headline accurate?
2. Does it work out of context?
3. How compelling a promise does it make?
4. How easy is it to parse?
5. Could it benefit from a number?
6. Are all the words necessary?
7. Does it obey the Proper Noun Rule?
8. Would it work better as an explanatory headline?
9. Does it focus on events or implications?
10. Could it benefit from one of these 10 words? Top, Why, How, Will, New, Secret, Future, Your, Best, Worst.

via poynter.org

VALUATION METRICS: 10 factors to consider when assessing if a company is 10X Revenue Club material

Bill Gurley of Benchmark is one of the smartest VCs I know. His investments include Uber, DogVacay, GrubHub, Zillow and OpenTable.This is a great filter for assessing investing in private companies as well.

We created a list of 10 factors that public investors consider when trying to qualify if a company is deserved of such a prestigious and lofty valuation. These factors are:

1. Sustainable Competitive Advantage – how big is the competitive Moat?
2. Presence of Network Effects – does the model tip to a single vendor?
3. Visibility/Predictability – is the revenue consistent
4. Customer Lock-in / High Switching Costs – is it expensive to leave?
5. Gross margin levels – How much leverage exists is the business?
6. Marginal Profitability Calculation – is the leverage still expanding?
7. Customer Concentration – are there key dependencies?
8. Major Partner Dependencies – are there key dependencies here as well?
9. Organic Demand vs. Marketing Spend – is customer acquisition expensive?
10. Growth – how big will the future be?

via abovethecrowd.com

Triangulations: Quality of Life - Is There More to Life than "Winning"?

"Software devs be like, 'We can change the world! ...unless it involves race, gender or economic oppression, then that's just how it is.' - Benito Applenoms (‏@yeloson)

Life presents a Parodox. It really does.

Are you satisfied with exhibiting a well-executed Pose?

Do you demand Performance from yourself?

Do you pursue a directed Path?

How about holding your Peers to some measure of Accountability?

Are you willing to look the other way so that Wall Street can hide behind the credo that Capitalism has no duty to the Greater Good? Or, Society for that matter?

It's why Wall Street can unashamedly steal from its own government with impunity. Pure capitalism, after all, is about the pursuit of Profits and Growth over Everything Else.

It's a revolving door. A lotto ticket to be cashed in. You would, too. Or, would you?

Is the Social Contract Dead?

Is so, what then? What's the end-game for the "Losers" in the game of life?

Silly talk? Get with it. A non-trival percentage of the population doesn't see itself as being gated on any sort of social responsibility boundaries. The market cures all, after all. The great antiseptic.

It doesn't see funding Safety Nets and Education as an "Us" topic. But rather, a Them topic, or worse, tantamount to waste and dead-beatism.

It raises a fundamental question of what represents Quality of Life in our society.

Is it collecting Stuff?

Is it Pursuing Big Ideas?

Is it Family and Friends?

Does establishing a Collective sense of "We"-ness matter anymore?

SImple questions, but the practice of actually building truths that do it in an always-on, always connected, Mobile First world require a fresh take on systems design, workflow, marketplace structuring and economic models.

TED as Emblematic of the Empty Sound Bite

Which brings me to TED. And sadly, no, I am not talking about that Ted.

Writing in theguardian.com, Benjamin Bratton argues compellingly that science, philosophy and technology run on the model of American Idol – as embodied by TED talks – is a recipe for civilisational disaster.

Read the full article, which is rich and thought-provoking. This excerpt captures what Bratton is advocating:

"Instead of dumbing-down the future, we need to raise the level of general understanding to the level of complexity of the systems in which we are embedded and which are embedded in us. This is not about "personal stories of inspiration", it's about the difficult and uncertain work of demystification and reconceptualisation: the hard stuff that really changes how we think. "

Amen to that. This requires multi-generational thinking. Can WE do that?

I pledge to do my part in the Year Ahead.

How about YOU?

Two Reasons Why 2013 Wasn't A Lost Year for Tech

Quartz, The Atlantic's often-excellent sister publication, recently published a provocative piece arguing that 2013 was a lost year for tech. It generated tremendous buzz and is worth a read. So, too, is the counter-perspective piece by my friend, Om Malik of GigaOM.

So what to make of all of this?

I think that there are two things going on here. One is the natural backlash associated with the socio-economic disconnect between Silicon Valley, Alley and Beach, and the rest of America.

The gap between those inside the bubble and those outside of it has never been greater. That truth HAS to become a part of our societal narrative, right? 

Two is emblematic of the stage of the technology curve that we’re in. In 'Waves of Power' by David Moscella, he presents an axiom that technology segments move from being “Vertically Integrated” to “Horizontally Integrated” to “Embedded.”

This is because the first wave requires integration of all of the system layers to deliver a compelling solution (think: iPhone). It requires true magic.

As the technology matures, various solution providers can provide the piece parts needed in a relatively interchangeable fashion (think: Android and the Microsoft PC).

Once ubiquity is achieved, the technology fades into the background, often to the point of invisibility, and the solution is just expected to work (Google Search, Amazon).

In other words, "boring" is emblematic of success.

Then again, anyone who has taken an Uber, or pondered how AirBNB books more room nights than the entire Hilton Hotel chain, should think twice about dismissing what tech is doing.

If there is any sense of disappointment, it’s the lack of companies other than Amazon, Google, and Apple that are committed to building enduring, great, out of the box innovations.

We need more entrepreneurs that aspire for the "insanely great" and less that chase the quick hit.

Related

1. Google Glass will soon be invisible – and the new normal (GigaOM)
2. Pattern Recognition: Mobile Web v. Mobile Native; TV's Blind Spot; 'Invisible' Designs
3. Innovation, Inevitability and Why R&D is So Hard

How to Become the King of Your Domain

When you look at your life, the path that you've forged, and the direction that you are heading towards, do you feel like the King (or Queen) of your domain?

Or, do you feel like a serf; an empty vessel who is living someone else's dream (or nightmare), floating down a river whose current you don't control, carrying you to a place that has no clear beginning, middle or end?

Let me tell you a story that changed my life. Maybe it will help you get some clarity about your own life.

When I was in my last year of college, I had a burning desire to get into an industry that fit a narrative that I had about myself. So I reached out to everyone in my network to secure informational interviews with hiring managers at some of the companies that I was targeting.

In one of the interviews, I met with a gentleman who was a grizzled old veteran of the industry that I was targeting (advertising), and he asked me, "So why advertising? Why do you think that it's the right industry for you?"

I proceeded to chime off a littany of reasons, including how my mind sees a product, and instinctively constructs an ad; how it's in my nature to see what IS, to deconstruct it, and then reconconstuct it as something different; and how I love to sell ideas.

This nice man let me yammer on for a few minutes before stopping me, and putting forth a challenge.

"You've given me a bunch of reason why you are right for advertising, but I still don't have a clear picture on why advertising -- or any business -- is right for YOU."

I was confused, so he shared a simple idea, and challenged me to complete a simple exercise that's been one of my core recipes for happiness and success ever since.

Four Pieces of Paper

He had me set aside four pieces of paper, and on the first, he told me to write down the six things that I am really good at, and truly excel at doing. 

Then, he had me write down on the second piece of paper the six things that I really enjoy, that fill me with a sense of natural joy simply in the doing.

With the third piece of paper, he asked me to imagine a time far into the future, surrounded by friends and family at my funeral. What were the six things imagining that moment in the future that I would most want to be remembered for having accomplished, the things that I'd done that mattered most?

Finally, he asked me to think of the top two items from each of the three sheets of paper, and write them down on the fourth piece of paper. 

His sermon to me was that this list of six things was the roadmap for my life, for it built upon the things that I was most skilled at, got the greatest joy in doing and led me on a journey to accomplish the things that mattered most to me in life.

I have never forgotten this experience, and every time that I have faced a significant crossroads in life - and there have been a few such times - I have updated this exercise, and it's served me well.

My Sermon to You

Use the above excerise, as it's a simple, highly workable way of (re) calibrating where you are at relative to where you need to be.

To that, I'd add six simple wrinkles: 

1. What are you good at? Commit to mastering it. Become the best. 
2. What do you enjoy? Swim in that body of water. Don't be the right boat in the wrong ocean. 
3. What do you want to be remembered for? Make it your mantra, core to your narrative. Then make it your path. 
4. From here on out, think like the King of Your Own Domain. Once you know your truth, carrying it with pride and certitude is an essential step to becoming.
5. Don't make things any harder than necessary. Life is plenty hard. There are no extra rewards for doing things the hard way. Where you have advantages, take them. Where gravity is favorable, leverage it.
6. Choose the direct and most simple path. If you are not clear on your aim, and the road you take is muddled and mixed up, you may not recognize opportunity when it presents, nor arrive at the finish line in time to claim your prize. Be direct and keep things simple, wherever possible.

Peace, and may a good life await you. :-

(Sidebar: By King of your domain, I am not talking about the "master of your domain" punchline of the classic Seinfeld episode, 'The Contest.')

Related Posts:

1. On Life as Art, Poetic Truths & Getting Rich 
2. Metamorphosis: Change your Life

LABOR PAINS: Innovation, economics, and messy, complex truths (New Post @GigaOM)

Andy Kessler, whose take on things I generally like, recently wrote a piece for The Wall Street Journal called, “Robots, 3-D Printers and Other Looming Innovations.”

In it he posed the question of whether the internet and other disruptive trends have destroyed more jobs than they’ve created. Could innovation actually be fueling the stubborn unemployment that has persisted in much of the country?

But Kessler was merely tossing some rhetorical “chum” into the waters to bait naysaying Luddites. Sure, people are hurting now, Kessler noted, and probably more jobs have been destroyed than created, but eventually things will more than even out, so suck it up!

Kessler then delivered his list of future job creating “game changers” with the certitude of a preacher sermonizing to his flock (it’s WSJ, after all).

But, Kessler’s truth ignores a messy paradox; namely, that while the innovations of tomorrow are most certainly worth working toward, that doesn’t obviate the parallel truth that the depth and duration of pain being experienced throughout much of the country is chronic, systemic, and arguably, must also be dealt with.

Reassessing the calculus of ‘value’

There is a Koan that is running through my head. Maybe you can help me suss it out.

In an era where cheap, commoditized and free are celebrated as democratizing virtues of plenty, when does a shirt for $6.99 cease being an asset, and when does it become a liability?

Read the full post at GigaOM by clicking HERE.

UPDATE: Fred Wilson of AVC (and Union Square Ventures) has blogged on my piece on Jobs and the Economy. 

Related Posts:

1. The Great Reset: Why tomorrow may NOT be better than today
2. The tyranny of the ‘All or None’
3. Assessing the Internet: Great Creator or Destroyer?
4. How Uber is like Southwest Air: The art of reinventing an industry

My Presentation at AppNation San Francisco on Product Lifecycle + Iteration

If you jump to 6:50 in this video, you will see the presentation that I did as part of a panel discussion on Mobile App Development at AppNation. The two salient points that I was trying to convey are:

1. The product lifecycle, especially on apps, is all about iteration, and having an agile, high-touch development model for supporting same;
2. How you launch and how you seed the market for an app is often as important as what you build.

In any event, check it out, and let me know your thoughts.

Two Thoughts on 'The Hardware Revolution Is Upon Us And Why It Matters'

Jon Callaghan of True Ventures has written an excellent article where he argues that a new hardware revolution is upon us, and that it is destined to be a game-changer. It's a great piece, and well worth a read. 

Here is an excerpt:

Almost exactly six years ago, Apple launched the first iPhone. It was a small device that many dismissed as a toy. In reality Steve put a supercomputer in our pocket — we just didn’t know it. And like super computers before, it came with immense capabilities and brought about an opportunity to rethink, reimagine and reinvent how we live, work, create and consume. Today, smartphones (and tablet devices) sell by the hundreds of millions.

Cheap processors, cheaper memory, and even cheaper sensors means it’s a great time for people who like to tinker with hardware to tinker. Platforms like Kickstarter and Quirky de-risk production, identify features and customers, and do so before the first tool is made. Wireless broadband is ubiquitous, and military grade technology is available at RadioShack. The manufacture and design of products and devices has changed forever. Building factories is no longer a prerequisite for building products. Add to the mix emergent technologies such as 3D printing and inexpensive laser cutters that put prototyping capabilities onto a kitchen table, and we suddenly are facing an extraordinary revolution in hardware-based innovation.

I wholeheartedly agree with his assertions, but I do want to put a bow around one of Jon's most salient points; namely, that building hardware is hard. Make that HARD with capital letters.

Specifically, there are two key 'gotchas' about the hardware business that most aspiring entrepreneurs get blindsided by.

Before I get into them, let me establish my "hardware chops." In my career, I have:

• Hand-built my own hardware systems (CafeNet: Internet access terminals)
• Worked in the network hardware business (Tribe Communications: Internet infrastructure)
• Invested in hardware startups (Whistle Communications: Internet appliances)
• Advised hardware startups (Square Connect: Universal remote control gateways)
• Founded a hardware device management software company (Rapid Logic: unified device management tools)
• Built a cross-platform system for creating native mobile apps (Unicorn Labs) 

In other words, my take is based upon a 360-degree perspective on the hardware business, and it's lifecycle from a make, bake and take to market perspective. 

So why hardware is so...HARD?

One is the simple truth that hardware guys speak a different language and come from a different planet than software guys, and vice versa.

This generally translates into each party trying to abstract out the other, which often leads to lowest common denominator solutions, or worse, products where the target user credulously wonders, "Were these things designed to work TOGETHER, or just to irritate the user?"

The next wave implies developers having a sense of there being one composite whole (hardware, software, service, tools, manageability), and the team, culture and ecosystem being oriented accordingly. One can see this dynamic at work in Apple's iOS vs. Google's Android.

Two is that specifically because you are dealing with physical devices (as opposed to the wholly digital 1s and 0s of software), the question of channels for discovery, selling, distribution and support are inordinately more complex, with many more points of failure, than with software alone.

This underscores an indelible truth about indirect channels (like retail, amazon, etc.) that many fail to grok; namely, that the channel can NOT solve your selling and support challenges until YOU figure them out first. It's like trying to tell the blind how to see when you can't see yourself.

Food for thought.

Related:

1. Three Takeaways from the WWDC Keynote: How Apple Got its Groove Back
2. Six Takeaways from the Google IO Keynote
3. Ruminations on The Mobile Native Cloud: An Extensible Computing Model for Post - PC
4. Innovation, Inevitability and Why R&D is So Hard

 

Progress Waits for No One, and Other Harsh Truths

There is a story that I like to share every time a news item pops up lamenting about the "good old days"...

The late Herb Caen (iconic San Francisco Chronicle columnist) once wrote an opinion piece about the worsening state of San Francisco and in particular, one of its main corridors, Market Street.

In it, he lamented about how this thoroughfare was always under construction, how the city’s charms and enduring traditions were getting swept aside by outsiders, and how the place was becoming less and less hospitable to locals and long-timers.

This harsh "truth" forced Caen to wonder if perhaps San Francisco’s best days were behind it.

But Caen was setting up the reader. In the next paragraph, he would reveal that, “Would it surprise you to know that I wrote this piece way back in 1954?”

Caen’s point was that then, as now, every generation sees their generation as the Real Generation and the Right Approach, when in truth, progress just moves Forward. It waits for no one.

Hence, the locals of San Francisco, circa 1954, saw a city losing its mojo when in truth, it was just moving forward with the times.

Thus, decades later it should be unsurprising that today’s locals would reach the exact same conclusions about the “good old days,” with the good old days being their particular generation's definition of good and normal.

Progress Just Moves Forward

I thought about this truth when the iPad came out, and the old guard railed against it as a "step backwards" for computing, which I wrote about here.

I think about this truth every time I hear someone lament about the loss of newspapers, bookstores and magazines (I feel your pain...though Joe Nocera's sermon against Twitter in the New York Times was a classic 'false dichotomy').

I think about this truth whenever I see another retail segment go from "darling" to deceased (retail NEEDS a reboot).

And, of course, I painfully think about this truth reading George Packer's 'The Unwinding,' beautifully written narrative that captures the convulsions and cardiac arrest occcuring in numerous cities across America.

Yes, progress isn't always pretty. Sometimes it brings beauty. Sometimes it brings change. Sometimes it is just brutal and downright ugly.

But, also know this. Progress doesn't care. It just moves forward. For gravity...just IS.

Related:

1. Grumpy old men, the "Inmates" and margins: iPad and the future of computing (O'Reilly)
2. Old Media, New Media and Where the Rubber Meets the Road (O'Reilly)
3. Retail Needs a Reboot to Survive (GigaOM)
4. The Jobs Engine: The Art of Reinventing an Industry (GigaOM)

Look Before You Leap: 3 Steps for Startup Success (Guest Post by Jim Li)

In recent years, the ‘lean startup’ methodology has become such gospel in entrepreneurial circles that rigorous planning is almost seen as passé.

Business plans? Unnecessary. Strategy? Old fashioned. Just start doing! Pivot quickly, and use agile development to rapidly test your ideas. Ready...Fire...Aim!

The lean startup methodology has gained favor because it recognizes that startups are not like traditional businesses, where planning presumes that a business model already exists, and that efficient growth is the primary goal.

In a startup, by contrast, only a hypothesis exists, and a viable business model and appropriate product offering must be found before the company runs out of money.

Because startup capital is usually very limited, running out of cash is typically a bigger problem than coming up with hypotheses to test.

But, a little upfront planning can go a long way towards cutting out needless and costly ‘experiments,’ saving your startup precious time and money. Or, as my entrepreneur friend, Mark Sigal, notes, "When you fail to plan, you plan to fail."

So before you take the leap with your own lean startup, be sure to factor the following in your planning: 

1. Talk to everyone about your idea. Forget about ‘stealth mode.’ Ideas are cheap; execution is what counts, so get out of your fishbowl. From this exercise, you may get feedback that validates, challenges or re-shapes your original assumptions. Minimally, you will make valuable connections while building practice in telling your story. You might even get introduced to potential customers or investors. One caveat, though. Don't just talk to people like you. For example, if you're an engineer, don't limit yourself to talking with other engineers. Talk to marketing folks, finance experts, retired CEOs, and target customers. The more diverse your circle, the more likely you are to turn up information that is expands your realm of understanding.

2. Research the incumbents and competition. Many industries are ripe for disruption, and many fellow entrepreneurs are busy trying to do just that. Old industries, including music, transportation, payments, and vacation rentals, to name a few, are being challenged by Millennials with a gleam in their eye and Amazon Web Service instances at their fingertips. But before you can overthrow the old, take a moment to understand how they operate. What are the legal, regulatory, technological and labor issues facing the existing order? While some startups choose to ignore or skirt regulations that the incumbents are bound by, it's best to know what those are before starting. That way, you will have a plan of record regarding how you'll cope in case you're challenged.

Similarly, the other startups in your space are worth understanding. In some cases, your competitors will take a completely different approach to the problem that is worth emulating. In other cases, careful study will reveal vulnerabilities that are best avoided. Minimally, spend the necessary time to understand their business models, as one of the primary goals of a lean startup is to find a business model.

In a world where the answers to most questions are just a Google search away, remember the axiom that forewarned is forearmed.

3. Find out what the "crazies" are saying and thinking.

Finally, take time to research what the outliers in your industry are saying. At the recent Google I/O conference, CEO Larry Page spoke about his strategy for entering new markets.

"I try to use Google a lot, and I research things really deeply. So you know, before we get something started, I try to actually understand it. And not just really understand it, but understand the crazy people in the area. And Google's great for that. You can find the craziest person in a given area. And normally I think people don't do that."

These are the crazies and futurists who talk about how things will be, "after the revolution." Remember: Many of today's ‘bellwether’ products started in science fiction. And this is where the crazies shine most, inasmuch as they excel at imagining the societal or personal impact of future technologies, which is something that you will need to consider if you're going to be successful.

Being a successful entrepreneur requires juggling two oft-competing truths. The first is that action, given incomplete information, is better than indecision and inaction. The second is that planning and preparation can save one from making costly mistakes.

Startups demand a certain level of bravado and extreme self-confidence. But, the best practitioners also take their time before committing to action. Follow these rules and your chances of success will grow by leaps and bounds. 

(ABOUT THE AUTHOR: Jim Y. Li is the Founder and CEO of Halloo Communications, offering the first virtual phone system with integrated contact management and call tracking. Jim started his first company when he was just 17, and has has two successful exits with Whistle Communications (IBM), and Tribe Computer Works (ZOOM). As an angel investor, he has helped founders raise capital and grow their businesses, and was the first investor in CafePress (PRSS). Follow Jim on Twitter at @Jim_Y_Li.)

Related Posts:

1. Nine Truths About Entrepreneurial Success
2. Start in the Middle (on Product Management and Outcome-Driven Orientation)

NIKEiD and the Uber-ization of Global Logistics

"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." - Arthur C. Clarke

"You mean, I simply push this button, and it just shows up?"

**It**, in this case, is the magical Uber Black Car; magical being relative to the pedestrian, unreliable yellow taxi.

What Uber did in re-thinking the gray space between taxis and private car services is instructive.

Logistically speaking, they rejiggered the following:

1. The Ordering Process (it's push-button simple via an app; no interminable waiting on hold for a dispatcher)
2. The Transparency of Availability (you can literally see how many cars are nearby, and how quickly your car will arrive)
3. The Nature of the Transaction (no money ever comes out of your pocket; you never have to think about the tip again)
4. The Reliability of Your Order (you are notified on your mobile when Uber arrives, the driver confirms that you are indeed the orderer; no more pickups that don't show up, or taxis 'stolen' by pedestrians on the street)
5. Your Relationship to the Driver (most drivers feel like entrepreneurs; Uber is a new revenue source for them; all drivers are identifiable, and subject to being rated and reviewed)

Part of the magic of Uber is that the company is able to create this transformative experience without owning any of the cars or hiring a fleet of drivers.

Given the above, is it any wonder then that "uber-ization" has become my go-to term for industry re-invention through new combinations of design, user experience, workflow and logistics -- as enabled by broadband, mobile and the cloud. 

NIKEiD: Re-Thinking What a Shoe Can Be

The power of great technological waves and re-invention in general is not merely that they change how things are made, or what they cost. 

Rather, it's that they change our concept of what is possible, and what a given medium can be.

In the realm of motion pictures, adding sound (and talking) to films, completely transormed the industry.

In the case of ecommerce, the boundarly-less and friction-free nature of Amazon, has completely disrupted retail.

In the realm of mobile, building a unifed platform around iPhones, iPads, iTunes and iOS, has catalyzed the post-PC era. 

I thought about this truth yesterday, as the pair of fully customized NIKEiD shoes showed up at my door.

Not only were they beautiful (okay, beauty is in the eye of the beholder), but what left me feeling awed was the fact that what had begun as a series of push-button simple clicks in San Francisco, had traveled across the globe, navigating an unimaginably intricate manufucturing and logistics process to find its way back to my front door.

The UPS route home alone (see above) shows stops in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Philippines, back to China, Alaska, Kentucky, Oakland, and finally, San Francisco. 

Simply magic, and I wonder how many other products, services and industries are ripe for such reinvention. 

If you are sitting in an industry where commoditization and/or disruption is your future (through de-localization, re-invention and digitization, you need to heed the words of Google CEO Larry Page.

His guidance? "I encourage more companies to do things that are outside their comfort zone. It gives you more scalability."

Food for thought.

Related:

1. Uber-ization: The art and science of reinventing an industry (GigaOM)
2. Retail needs a reboot to survive (GigaOM)
3. You say you want a revolution? It's called post-PC computing (O'Reilly)

Reading the Tea Leaves of Apple's Q2, 2013 Earnings Call -- Four Takeaways

"It's not real, you know, the fame thing."- Anna Scott (Notting Hill)

The hardest thing for the beleaguered Apple investor to wrap their head around is the fact that Apple exists on a schizophrenic plane like no other.

On the one hand, there is 'THE STOCK' -- i.e., the broken stock price.

It rests in the same Bargain Bin as Dell Computer, a company selling undifferentiated offerings in a commoditized segment that quite literally shrinks by the day.

On the other, there is 'THE REAL COMPANY,' an innovating, selling, marketing, leverage and cash-generating machine that has now dropped almost $100 billion dollars in revenues and $22 billion dollars of profits in just the first two quarters of Apple's fiscal year.

That this engine has fattened the company's coffers to the tune of $145 billion dollars (another $12.5 billion added this quarter) does not satisfy.

That this harvest comes from six different multi-billion dollar product lines (iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPad, iTunes & Services, Accessories) manages little more than an acknowledging shrug.

That the company has repeatedly proven its ability to create massive new markets in a quasi-predictable, highly-levered fashion (now known simply as the iOS platform), yields but a yawn.

"Where's my divvy," bitch the disappointed investors, seemingly ignorant to the fact that not only have spirtual peers, Google and Amazon, never offered up a dividend, but they've never even let the topic so much as brush the top of the table. 

"Apple has an identity crisis," utter the dumbest of the dumb media, blind to the power of Apple's unique position in the market as an integrated hardware, software, services, media, tools and marketplace solution provider.

Ever clear on their North Star - i.e., delivering great consumer experiences that change people's lives - Apple has neither changed their identity, nor lost their focus, as evidenced by the best customer satisfaction and customer loyalty ratings, and consistently, the industry's highest profit margins.

Know this. If it was even remotely easy to approximate the 'Apple Way,' we'd be talking about the multiple multi-billion dollar product lines that Apple's competitors have created; we'd be talking about the breakout success of the Apple Retail Store copycats; and we'd be talking about the multitudes of developer success stories that have dropped out of the Google, RIM or Microsoft mobile ecosystems.

We aren't, and it's not (easy).

It's with this fundamental schism between THE REAL COMPANY and The STOCK that I attempted to make sense of the takeaways from Apple's earnings call.

There are four conclusions that stood out to me:

1. Tim Cook wants Apple to be Liked by Investors in a way that Steve Jobs never did: In the call, Cook had an almost apologetic tone with respect to how Apple has failed to beat the guidance, growth and margins expected by analysts and media. In increasing the dividend and upping buybacks, the tone was more akin to "we're trying harder" than "get on the bus or get left in the dust." By contrast, even when Apple's stock was cratering into the $80's following the crush of the 2008 financial crisis, Jobs embodied a healthy irritation for the capriciousness of investors, and the ignorance of many analysts and the media. The truth here is that no good deed goes unpunished, and far from appreciating Apple's olive branch to investors, the narrative is likely to be spun as Cook's Apple is trying to buy time, and is in defensive mode. Me personally, I wanted a bit more "F-U," and a bit less, "we're sorry."
2. Margins will Remain Contracted for the Foreseeable Future: If there are two product-related narratives that stood out for me, they are: 1) iPad mini unleashed an absolute torrent of first-time tablet device buyers (personally, it's their best tablet device), and if the sacrifice is lower margins (relative to the larger iPad), it's worth the trade-off. If the tablet is the replacement device for many a 'job' that users previously hired PCs for -- as I believe it is -- then any way that Apple can capture this market share is a zero-sum type of win that they must secure. Here, Cook and Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer were quite clear that Apple executed a similar strategy in winning the media player market with iPod, so what's past is prologue; and 2) iPhone 4/4S is the smartphone device that Apple is counting on to capture market share outside of the US with first-time smartphone buyers. Unsurprisingly, these devices may be where the highest volume comes from on iPhone (especially, until the next iPhone comes out), eroding margins in the process. The alternative is to give that ground to Android based devices, a calculus between market share, revenue, user experience and the bottom line that the company has repeatedly shown the acumen to manage through. Honestly, I am not even remotely concerned that they will find the right balance here.
3. The New Product Pipeline will Likely Remain Dry until Fall at the earliest: Given the extreme secrecy by which the company launches new products, and manages expectations around same, Cook spoke with a metaphorical bull-horn in flatly stating that new product **categories** and new services are not expected until this Fall and throughout 2014. Needless to say, the absence of new products combined with the absence of seasonal catalysts, explains why Apple's outlook for Q3 was a flat quarter, and why the quarter behind that may not be much better.
4. iOS Usage Rates are Staggering in their Differential relative to Competing Platforms: If the downside of the current Apple story is absence of true catalysts to carry it aloft to new heights, the upside is that iOS stands alone in generating 75 cents of every dollar of ecosystem commerce in the mobile universe. Simply put, Apple is paying developers $1 billion dollars in revenue share every quarter, iTunes is on a $16 billion dollar run rate, and the actual usage of these devices in terms of web traffic is of a different degree than the competition. Keep that in mind next time Google touts generic Android unit count numbers. Again, that's not to say that there aren't clear scenarios where Apple gets attacked on the margins, but their core differentators, and the depth of engagement and loyalty with users is unlikely to be threatened any time soon. That's the bottom line.

So, netting it out, should you Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing? And what will Apple stock do in the intervening months ahead?

This, unfortunately is a riddle without a clear answer, a stark reminder of the famous quote that the market can stay irrational far longer than most investors can remain solvent.

Related Posts:

1. Cry Babies: The Strange, Confusing Path of the Apple 
2. Apple's North Star: Four Takeaways from Apple's Q4 Earnings Call
3. OMG, WTF is going on with Apple Stock
4. What is Apple Worth: The 'Gold Standard' Thesis
5. Get ready for the Apple + iPhone backlash

Where do good ideas come from?

There is a buddhist axiom, 'First Thought, Best Thought' that speaks to the power of spontaneity and intuition.

When presented with conflicting internal (or inter-personal) narratives, I will always default to first thought, best thought thinking.

But default, is not destiny. Sometimes the first thought isn't the best thought.

It may be ill-advised. It may be muddy and unclear. It may confuse tail with dog. Or any number of in-between possibilities.

I thought about this today in talking with a friend, an accomplished artist and author who has sold millions of titles from original work that he has created.

The impetus was a project that looked at the onset like a really good idea...after first thought...second thought...and even third thought. 

But upon careful reflection, challenged by a key litmus test question, my friend acknowledged that that one unspoken element had stuck in his craw.

He was apologetic, now finding himself at a cross-roads when heretofore, he had only seen an open road ahead.

I, on the other hand, was non-plussed. 

I write a ton, have started a bunch of companies, and launched many projects, big and small, so I know how the creative process goes.

Sometimes these things drop from the heavens, a gift from the gods.

Other times, it's grope, ship the idea, tweak, iterate, finesse, re-think, re-work and then polish.

Still others, it's bury in an unmarked grave.

We can't always know when ideas are good. But unless we are willing to take that first step, we're simply standing still.

Related:

1. The tyranny of the 'All or None'
2. Start in the Middle