The Network Garden - Mark Sigal's Blog

Generative AI: Midjourney, DALL-E and the AI Art Wave

I have seen the future, and AI Art is embedded in it.

Case in point, the above image was generated by typing nothing more than the words "a dachshund doberman mix with black fur and light brown and medium brown coloring riding a skateboard" on AI art service, DALL-E.

Four different variations were rendered in under one minute, I picked one version where I chose a few more variations, clicked upscale, and this is the output.

In under two minutes start to finish, I had created something magical (to me, at least).

The experience brought me back to Neal Stephenson's 'The Diamond Age,' which introduced the concept of a Matter Compiler.

Think 3D Printing, Generation 100.

The Matter Compiler of The Diamond Age was an atomic and sub-atomic assembly and render engine. Pretty much anything, organic or inorganic, live or not alive, could be output from a Matter Compiler.

If that is what the fully realized end-state looks like, then the potential of AI Art is some subset of that. 

A Sample AI Art Gallery

Here is a sample gallery I created in Midjourney, another emerging AI Art service.

Using the specific phrases you see on the each page, and then creating variations, and then iterating those variations until I got the looks that I wanted, is how I came to a finished instance. To finish, I upscaled the final candidates to the max.

Sidebar: The "finished product" is akin to an MVP but for visual prototypes.

Think of the word strings on each page of the gallery as akin to how we all got good-ish at fine tuning google queries to get the pinpoint return we were looking for.

This is best thought of as a render query, and it demonstrates AI Art's potential as:

• A new "compose-able" medium
• An artistic medium for creative dabbling
• An engine for product design
• A platform for extrapolating design patterns

I have two thoughts here.

One, most disruptive innovations start as "toys" and then as they ramp up the power and utility scale, find their niche and grow to dominate.

Keep that in mind in assessing the unfinished quality of what AI Art is at, and how magical it already is, anyway.

Two, by reducing the effort required for deep exploration and prototyping from a scarce, complex activity to a simple and unlimited one, AI Art creates a fertile environment for a wave of meta artists (and technicians) to emerge.

This is similar to the way twitter turned blogging from a niche universe to a 140 character tweet that anyone could instantly create and/or consume.

Segments Ripe for Disruption

Stock photos and stock images are one such example where this type of service could be a disruptor, but how about renderings of buildings, or of master planned communities?

But while AI Art for Images is pretty damn compelling in its own right as a native experience, AI Art is not just for Images, but for Music, Games, Video and Writing, too.

One use case I can see here is AI rendered post production services to overlay digitally rendered video, imagery and sound into movie scenes.

As social media showed, there will be an ever-growing content base, and all of the creative activities pursued by users through their usage will "train" the systems to yield better output.

This will by its very nature, MEANS accelerated learning patterns, and a virtuous innovation cycle as it kicks into high gear.

AI Art has the potential to be transformational for multiple industries:

1. Point of Interest (POI) libraries will have real value in how
   they enable better modeling and extrapolation
2. As a driver of growth, the scaling of Capturing,
   Rendering, and Output will be interesting to watch
3. Gilder’s Scarcity and Surplus Observation suggests that not only will this wave yield a lot of new value creation, but great monetary wealth

Deep Fakes or Parody: The Intellectual Property Question

A final thought. A question that both Midjourney and DALL-E are already grappling with in different ways is the question of intellectual property (IP) and use of likenesses and recognized brands, and how heavy-handed they should be with each.

At one extreme, you have deep fakes, counterfeiting and co-option of someone else's identity, brand and/or likeness in ways that invade privacy or damage one's rights to own and define that which is theirs.

At the other extreme, you have parody and satire, which is largely protected as freedom of speech and artistic expression.

Midjourney and DALL-E are in beta if interested in checking out.

Update: I LOVE this analysis by Sequoia Capital on #GenerativeAI, which they define as "A powerful new class of large language models making it possible for machines to write, code, draw and create with credible and sometimes superhuman results." This essay does a great job of codifying the different layers of the stack, and the applications they engender.

Update:Very strong analysis by Kevin Kelly (Picture Limitless Creativity at Your Fingertips) on how Artificial intelligence can now make better art than most humans, and will transform how we design just about everything.

American Exceptionalism: Dancing on the Razor's Edge

Winston Churchill once famously observed that "Americans will always do the Right Thing, only after they have tried Everything Else."

I guess we all know now the true meaning of American Exceptionalism!

Then again, maybe it's a necessary buzz-kill, in that it reminds us that the motivational razor's edge is mighty thin between democracy and authoritarianism.

For a generation who did not directly experience the horrors of World War II, who never had to sacrifice loved ones to preserve our freedom, let alone miss out on the latest Prada bag, Door Dash delivery, or egads, actually learn history, we occasionally NEED reminders of what falling into the abyss looks like.

The January 6th Hearings are a stark reminder that that which we FAIL to hold dear, we're destined to eventually lose.

Too much temptation for one side to seize the keys to the Kingdom, and restore the Monarchy.

Democracy is not our birth right, not the natural order, but rather something to be fought for and held tight, or as Benjamin Franklin once remarked:

"A Democracy, if you can keep it."

But how to add resilience into the system?

Three Keys: Education, Safety Nets and Reconciliation

Let's begin with Reconciliation (aka Towards a More Civil Union).

Light is the best antiseptic, so let's shine a light on the key questions of our times.

What are we fighting over?

What are we divided over as Americans?

What is the common ground we CAN agree upon?

If most of what divides the haves from the have nots is driven by socio-economic status, then what are the key stakes, stakeholders and incentives to drive the right outcomes?

Similarly, what are the reasonable checks and balances that mitigate against gaming the system?

By now, it should be obvious that better messaging is critical to overcoming the forces that divide:

1. The Venal (Fox News)

2. The Corrupt (GOP, Evangelicals)

3. The Conflicted (Corporate Lobbyists)

4. The Evil Dead (Haters, Inc.)

The Reconciliation needs to become a "thing" that is deterministically and memeticly messaged over and over, with a preponderance of facts, factors and clear choices.

It needs a well-funded, enduring bullhorn of a Public Service Announcement (PSA).

This is akin to the way we over-turned the culture of smoking in America through counter-advertising, education, formal labeling and yes, litigation.

In terms of Safety Nets, we have to decide if it's a Right to have:

1. A Roof Over One's Head
2. A Baseline of Universal Health Care
3. A Publicly Funded Education

Me personally, I think it is, but that doesn't mean that that right is free from: A) Personal responsibility; B) Some form of fiscal responsibility; and C) Some payback mechanism, such as a Peace Corps 2.0.

Speaking of Education, this is a battle ground, to be sure, with the public dollars that are critical to funding being leeched out of the system by the wealthier who can afford the best a Private School Education can pay for.

Plus, both left and right have strong opinions what the curriculum should -- and SHOULDN'T -- be.

Teaching Churchill's Truth: A Lesson in Bend Don't Break

My simple calculus on curriculum is based on direct experience.

I went to all public schools from Elementary through Middle School, High School and University, and greatly benefited from the diversity of a wide range of courses, including writing, reading, math, history (American and International), science, speech, foreign languages, shop classes, even home economics, curriculum that have seemingly been winnowed out in public schools.

If we could deliver the above before, there is no reason we can't do it again.

On a cultural level, I benefited from the fact that my schools (especially Middle and High School) featured a diversity of economic, racial, religious and cultural backgrounds among the student population.

This is an experience that forever shaped me by establishing an ability to connect with all types of people.

It also broadened my understanding that everyone has a different story to tell, and we all need fertile soil for those stories to germinate, take root and grow.

It certainly gave me more empathy.  

Kids bussing in from the inner city had it a lot tougher than me.

Thus, my bias here is to go back Churchill's notion that Americans will always do the Right Thing, only after they have tried Everything Else," and teach that truth, warts and all, bounded by three quantifiable, foundational goals:

1. Broadening Knowledge
2. Delivering Direct Experience
3. Cultivating Depth of Thinking 

By quantifiable, I believe that we manage what we measure, so some form of measurement is desirable.

But that's about it. If we want to add resilience to our system, we have to commit to a rebuilding phase focused on cultivating and delivering a generation that feels part of (and accountable to) something greater than themselves.

Stagflation and Death Spirals

Were the present time that I am writing about to be a movie, this would be the point in the story where Our Hero is hanging on the edge of a cliff.

Social division, multiple waves of the COVID pandemic, a rise in authoritarianism, and resulting proxy wars both at home and abroad, have taken their toll.

We're tired, many are depressed, and more than a few are broken souls.

Exhibit A: The Menace of Gun Violence.

Now, a slowing economy leads many to fear that we're heading towards an abjectly terrifying form of inflation known as Staglation.

What is Stagflation?

Stagflation is when two conditions occur simultaneously.

One, price inflation is high.

(I don't have to explain to anyone what that feels like.)

The other condition is economic slowdown.

When both these conditions occur, the cost of running a business becomes painfully high, so companies cut back, further slowing down the economy, which leads to a vicious cycle.

Coupled with social malaise, this cycle can feel like a Death Spiral.

Stagflation last occurred in the late 70s.

At the time, coupled with the U.S. having lost a war in Vietnam, losing to Japan in manufacturing, the broken trust of Watergate, the doomsday feel of the assassinations of JFK, Robert Kennedy, Martin Luther King and Peak Crime, meant America felt like its best days were behind it.

It's the single darkest time I personally lived through.

Reasons for Optimism

But here is where comparisons to the Stagflation of the late 70s feels off.

Unlike the bloodbath that was American manufacturing industry, the U.S. is still innovating quite well, and the supply chain shortfalls associated with so much offshoring suggest that we'll see more and more industries at least shift some of their manufacturing back to American soil.

Plus, the catalyst of the pandemic has re-invented where and how people work, opening up new avenues for innovation and job/industry growth.

On a social level, while there is undeniably plenty of racism, and rights we long took for granted seem like they're falling away (see Roe v. Wade), there is also no doubt we've made great social progress, which makes for a more dynamic America...if we can get through these tumultuous times.

This is our moment of bend don't break, and a hopefully stronger Democracy on the other side.

If we can keep it.

It’s a Madhouse: Thoughts on Gun Reform and Being Serious about Real Problems

There is a moment in the original 'Planet of the Apes' where Charlton Heston's Astronaut Taylor screams out in horror of a world that is upside down.

"It's a Madhouse...a Madhouse."

Putting aside the fact that Heston himself was an NRA-loving gun nut, the phrase "Madhouse" keeps echoing through my brain as we suffer through yet another gun massacre (Robb Elementary School), less than a week following the last massacre (Buffalo Supermarket Shooting).

How can one political party (the GOP) sleep at night defending and doubling-down on a policy that results in a never-ending stream of mass shootings each year at our schools, places of worship, workplaces and shopping and entertainment venues?

Do you or anyone you care about hang out at any of those places?

Do you really want to live in a world where dying in a hail of bullets is a "roll of the dice" possibility?

Just in our recent lifetimes, the names below have become synonymous with mass death, and families that will never be whole again, for no other reason than ready access to AR-15 assault rifles by those full of hate, disgruntlement, racism, youthful anger, retribution or mental illness: 

• Columbine High School (SCHOOL)
• Virginia Tech (SCHOOL)
• Aurora Movie Theater (ENTERTAINMENT VENUE)
• Sandy Hook Elementary (SCHOOL)
• Umpqua Community College (SCHOOL)
• Planned Parenthood (PLACE OF WORK)
• San Bernardino attack (PLACE OF WORK)
• Pulse Nightclub (ENTERTAINMENT VENUE)
• Las Vegas Music Festival (ENTERTAINMENT VENUE)
• Sutherland Springs church (PLACE OF WORSHIP)
• Stoneman Douglas High (SCHOOL)
• Santa Fe High (SCHOOL)
• Pittsburgh Synagogue (PLACE OF WORSHIP)
• Borderline Grill (DINING)
• Poway Synagogue (PLACE OF WORSHIP)
• Henry Pratt Co, (PLACE OF WORK)
• Gilroy Garlic Festival (ENTERTAINMENT VENUE)
• Virginia Beach (PLACE OF WORK)
• El Paso Walmart (SHOPPING)
• Dayton, Ohio (ENTERTAINMENT VENUE)
• Milwaukee Brewery (PLACE OF WORK)
• Atlanta spa shootings (PLACE OF WORK)
• King Soopers Boulder (SHOPPING)
• Indianapolis Fed Ex (PLACE OF WORK)
• San Jose VTA (PLACE OF WORK)

Being Serious About Real Problems

When one party's answer to the menace of gun violence is that there is ‘No Way To Prevent This,’ Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens, as The Onion scornfully mocks, that party has revealed itself to be rotten to the core.

If we can't even get serious about addressing a dynamic that is unique to the United States, that all Americans are affected by, then the pretenses of an allegiance to one nation, common sense solutions and rule of law, have mostly ended.

The lack of gun reform in the face of clear public opinion favoring it, is part of it, but so too is the disenfranchisement of women's rights, despite public opinion, the hollowing out of voting rights, despite public option, and the noxiousness and anomie symbolized by the January 6th insurrection, the big lie, denialism of climate science, etc.

Or, as David Rothkopf puts it in a brilliant thread:

It's the guns, but it's not just the guns. It's the racism, but it's not just the racism. It's the misogyny, but it's not just the misogyny. It's the attacks on democracy but it's not just the attacks on democracy.

The GOP has declared war on the nation of a functioning democracy (and by extension, the Democratic Party).

They eye test tells you that they are saying the quiet stuff out loud, actively de-constructing rule of law, rolling back long-standing, hard fought-for social gains, generally operating free of fear of consequences.

Again Rothkopf:

Compounding their hypocrisy is that the people for whom they assert they are fighting are just dupes, pawns they use to maintain power so the leaders of the movement and its funders can profit, can rig our system to promote inequality and to enhance already obscene riches.

...and yet the Democrats turn the other cheek, when they should be approaching this as the fight for our lives as a free society.

One party is the party of AR-15's, both literally and metaphorically, and the other is about "When they go low, we go high."

Really? Have you ever faced down a bully, where reason and compassion actually worked?

I hearken back to what Jim Malone tells Elliott Ness in 'The Untouchables':

"What are you prepared to do?"

Holding Our Leaders Accountable: It's a WE Problem

As Americans, we must demand better. Being an exceptional country should free us from the tyranny of: 

— Gun Menace

— Endemic Corruption

— Gluttonous Greed

— Economic Hopelessness

What scares me most is not those whose purpose is full of ill-intent.

The existence of those embracing the dark path is as old as Eden.

What scares me most is an observation I've noted traveling around the country over the years.

Ironically, the same notion was validated recently by a conservative friend, who bicycled across the country, and was struck by the observation that major swaths of the the country -- 30-40% at least -- is not intellectually curious, fact bound or discerning.

They are empty vessels.

In a post local newspaper world, they exist in a news desert, all-too-readily radicalized by the FoxNews or Facebook-fed narrative of hate (versus hope), vengeance (versus virtue) virtual, and civil war (versus unity).

Enough.

As Howard Beale says in 1976's prescient 'Network':  

"I’m mad as hell and am not gonna take it anymore. "

Life Lessons: Always Be Teaching

One of the truisms that I embrace in life, and encourage others to embrace as well is the notion that life is full of "teachable" moments, so whether it is your child, your partner, a client or a co-worker, you should adopt a mindset to Always Be Teaching.

Why do I say this? Number one, the idea of giving back, and giving more than we take, is a powerful, pay it forward concept.

Don't talk the talk. Walk the walk.

Two, the idea of teaching and teachable moments forces one to soften their heart when others fail to see the full picture.

After all, there is a BIG difference between, "You let me down" and "Let me show you how to be better."

Three, the idea that we are teaching versus, selling, directing or admonishing, really focuses the mind.

What am I trying to communicate? What is the outcome goal? What other pieces do my counterpart need to know to be successful here? What is a reasonable expectation given the current understanding at hand?

Finally, when you embrace the notion of teaching, and BE-ing a teacher, you come to see interactions as part of a practice, and a discipline that requires a different kind of preparation, which forces YOU to be better, more directed and more process-driven.

By giving back, you become better.

Find Your Purpose

As the year winds down, and a new one is set to begin, know this. We have a limited time on the planet to make our mark (whatever that mark is). 

Don’t waste time with apathy, excuses or laziness.

Where confusion reigns, take inventory, seek answers, write it down and iterate.

Every breath is a blessing. Make it matter. Make your mark.

Ruminations on The Fountainhead vs. Atlas Shrugged: When Does Personal Integrity Become Narcissism and Sociopathy?

I am a big fan of juxtapositions; the idea of putting two disparate concepts side by side to get to a larger truth.

One of my favorite juxtapositions is Ayn Rand's "The Fountainhead" vs. "Atlas Shrugged."

I find that people who've read both books tend to favor one more deeply.

The Fountainhead is largely a tale about the price one pays for pursuing and maintaining Personal Integrity at all costs.

It's a book about being true to one's self.

Atlas Shrugged is about the Makers vs. the Takers (tell me if you have heard this terminology before).

Atlas Shrugged poses as a book about Creating and Building when it's really a book about Narcissism and Sociopathy.

I say this because it presents a false dichotomy and a cynical view of society and institutions when the truth is more nuanced.

Every bit of infrastructure we have is built by our institutions, and the greatest companies are built on the backs of TEAMS of great people, many of whom never get rewarded or fully appreciated for their efforts.

The idea of a Maker or Taker is core to what is wrong in our society.

It foments the narcissist view of "I create" over the more humble truth that "We built."

It fuels the sociopathic view that great societies can't or shouldn't commit to great health care, great education and safety nets.

It's a relic of a time when the stark choice was between the black hole of communism and totalitarianism, and the optimism and the realm of the possible afforded by capitalism and democracy.

We live in a time where such false dichotomies position capitalism against democracy, where one has to come at the cost of the other, when the more noble path is learning to reconcile and embrace the AND.

Needless to say, I LOVE The Fountainhead and have a gag reflex about Atlas Shrugged.

Ruminations on the Test Drive: If you want to see how it ENDS, look at how it BEGINS

One of my favorites axioms is that if you want to see how it ENDS, look at how it BEGINS.

The saying is an acknowledgment that human “actors” do the actual work in life, so whether they hit the ground running (or not); are easy to work with (or not); or do what they say (or not) is indicative and predictive of how things will go in the relationship.

Think about it. On a personal and professional level, people are generally on their best behavior at the beginning of a relationship. 

It is also a time when they are expected to be prepared and have a plan.

This is why I say that if you want to see how it ends, look at how it begins. 

People who are easy to work with and on top of things when you first start working with them, are generally going to be good to work with over the long haul.

People who rub you the wrong way, or don’t have their act together when you first encounter them, are telling you something about who they are. 

Ignore this fact at your own peril.

Which brings me to the goodness offering a "test drive" of your product (or service) before committing long term.

Why do I advocate this?

Going back to the notion of seeing how things end by looking at how things begin, having a test drive in your selling funnel accomplishes the following. It:

- Delivers tangible, quantifiable value
- Establishes credibility
- Enables the client to get buy-in
- Sets a framework for the working relationship

In the process, it forces you to focus on the sharp edge of the spear in terms of your offering.

A test drive can start simple, it can take lots of different forms, and be iterated over time. 

In the case of my company, Datex Property Solutions, we began with a data analysis of our clients' MRI or Yardi databases, then expanded the offering to a test drive of the base Datex platform, and then extended it further to support test driving our reporting automation capabilities.

Clients have told us time and again, that the value proposition really moved the needle for them. 

When done right, a test drive is the ultimate show me, which is a win-win for both sides.

Ruminations on Curiosity

It's been ten years since Steve Jobs left us. So much of the way I think about platforms, innovation and the application of technology to life has been shaped by watching and learning from Apple (and Steve Jobs). 

I've sold a company to Apple (Me.com), sold Apple-based networking systems in my career, built a business building iOS Apps, and written 100+ posts on Apple.

More so than any attribute of Apple is Jobs' aspirational mindset of pursuing the Insanely Great and "puncturing holes in the universe" through innovation, and that begins with a practiced with dogged-ness, earnest-ness and deep hunger.

With that in mind, I love this quote from Jony Ive, remembering Jobs' deep sense of curiosity:

"He was without doubt the most inquisitive human I have ever met. His insatiable curiosity was not limited or distracted by his knowledge or expertise, nor was it casual or passive. It was ferocious, energetic and restless. His curiosity was practiced with intention and rigor."

That, in a nutshell, is the power of curiosity.

It specifically is NOT bounded by knowledge or expertise. With purpose and intent, ALL doors are open to the curious.

I also love this quote from Albert Einstein, one of the greatest thinkers of all time.

Understanding the "Vampires" Among Us

Vampires are dark energy types; they are malevolent, grasping and greedy operators that prey upon and feed on the psychic and real lives of other people.

These blood suckers carry socio-economic contempt for “the other,” who is perceived as a loser, deserving of their destiny as sacrificial lambs.

To the vampire, the rule of law is that to the victor goes the spoils.

Everyone else gets crumbs, and are lucky to even get that.

There is no room coexistence with vampires, just as there is no co-existence with the mosquito, the sociopath and the criminal.

Yet, we are surrounded by parasites and predators who don’t embrace what it means to live in a society.

On Bias, False Dichotomies (and other Four Letter Words)

While the macro “industry trends” are all towards Big Data and Intelligent Systems as the force multipliers that will drive the greatest growth over the next decade, it's actually the Human side of the equation that many of us struggle most greatly to reconcile in business and in life. One of the most basic areas of struggle is in the realm of Biases.

While there are literally dozens of types of Biases, the one that I want to focus on in this post is a False Dichotomy. (In a later post, I will talk a bit about its sibling bias, the False Equivalency.)

False Dichotomies manifest when (biased) analysis and decision-making yields black and white conclusions on topics that have clear dynamism or nuance.

Consider a topic such as product segmentation; namely, how much functionality to add to service what specific outcomes, and what types of users relative to market needs, at what pricing and support level.

The above example might reasonably support dozens of different narratives around what the right solution buckets are for the various addressable segments of the market.

But, specifically because such analysis can yield different assessments, it’s ripe for biases – good and bad – to shape the discussion.

When the internal back and forth falls into an all-or-none dialog, such as “We can either be a client focused company, or a money focused company,” that is a false dichotomy at work.

So how do you counter a false dichotomy? Three principal ways are through effective countering, introspection and teaching.

Effective countering in the above example might lead to a discussion of the different types of users being served, and what their needs and constraints are.

Sometimes, more isn’t better. It might add complexity, it might impact speed, it might lose 90% of the target users, who don’t want a Swiss army knife solution, and just need one or two really specific, highly optimized capabilities.

Introspection might treat the topic as an opportunity to surface externalities that drive the biases. “Josh, do you think we have a culture of placing dollars above the need of clients? Is there a specific decision we’ve made in the past few months that you think is reflective of compromised values?”

The point here is two-fold. One, light is the best antiseptic when it comes to getting to the right outcome and surfacing the sub-narratives that trigger such biases.

Two, is that getting to specificity is the best way to get past black and white narratives.

Related to this is the notion of teaching. When I find myself getting sucked into a false dichotomy with a co-worker or a personal relationship, I specifically call it out as a false dichotomy, explain what a false dichotomy is, point out the gradations of analysis, and shine a light on this as a point of emphasis with the individual until the topic is internalized.

Always be teaching, as making people better is the ultimate force multiplier, but that’s a post for another day.

Two of the biggest truths about understanding the power of Incentives

Two of the biggest truths of my career (and life in general) pertain to the power -- for good and bad -- of incentives. One, is the basic truth that what you INCENT is what you REAP. Put another way, show me the incentive, and I can tell you the outcome.

We humans tend to confuse attributes and outcomes, so often come up with incentives for our co-workers, clients, partners, peers, children, etc. that are misaligned with our outcome goals.

Unsurprisingly, this leads to bad outcomes.

The remedy is to begin with the end in mind, actually taking inventory of what success looks like, what the integral steps are to getting there, ensuring that incentives reward those outcomes, and over-communicating both the incentive and the GOAL of the incentive.

Narrative matters, and so how we manage incentives and measure results is critical.

The second truth, which is an immovable object in my opinion, is to NEVER underestimate the power of people's ability to convince themselves of ANYTHING when they believe their livelihood depends upon it.

We often confuse company objectives with self-interest and the need for self-preservation, and so we get steamrolled when we expect people to act in ways that our counter to their self-interest, irregardless of company goals.

The solution is empathy, and investing in understanding the various stakeholders, their goals, constraints and biases, and being ready to play the long game when those elements don't line up, as they often don't.

In my experience, this is not specific to industry, seniority, or stage of life. It is elemental to people's reason for being, and we forget that fact at our own peril.

Ruminations on an Amoral Company

When does a company cross the line from profit-seeking to ruthless? 

When does it cross the line from ruthless to treacherous? 

Is ruthlessness okay in business, as in buyer beware?

Or, when you’ve shown loyalty to a business through repeated transactions, universal embrace, and favorable word of mouth, is there a contract of sorts?

You know, that that brand won’t betray your trust, or materially change the rules without full transparency.

Uber: An Amoral Company

I pose this question since, as a frequent flyer, I find myself opening the Uber app to take an Uber ride at different airports several times a month, and have done so for years. 

While my behavior hasn't changed, one thing has notably changed in recent months. 

Specifically, I have been shocked and disgusted by Uber’s surge pricing practices, which are clearly predatorial.

When I say predatorial, I mean that Uber is specifically “gaming” the consumer at the airport by routinely charging 2X - 4X normal pricing, trying to engineer specific consumer behaviors; namely, paying a crapload more money, knowing full well that the customer:

A) Has few options

B) Has limited mobility

C) Feels on the clock post-flight

D) May be able to pass the cost on to their employer

Case in point, I have seen repeated examples at SFO, where a fare that normally varies from $28 to $55 was $150, a #FFS (for fuck sake) number that it should be noted is 5.36X the lowest rate offered by Uber!!

Predatorial Capitalism

So, you say, well that’s how surge works. Get over it.

Sure, but that begs the question of WHAT is the catalyst for the surge.

Feeling gut-punched, I clicked in and out of the Uber fare query function, and the $150 rate quickly toggled down to $78, then, when I didn’t bite, back into $125, never getting much below $100. 

But within 15-20 minutes, the price was back to a more manageable $57.

Like clockwork, I have played this cycle with Uber several times.

But, then I was at Burbank Airport the other day, a suburban, somewhat smaller municipal airport.

What would have been a $30-43 fare, was instead, $120.

For a brief moment, the app showed a $68 rate that felt unfair, so knowing the game, I passed.

For the next 35 minutes, I repeated the learnings from above, but to no avail.

A Second Chance to Make a First Impression

In my article, 'Reopening Retail: A second chance to make a first impression,' I wrote that post-pandemic, retailers and businesses of all types, having been “battle hardened” need to recognize the golden opportunity; a second chance to make a first impression.

The point being, while it's tempting to squeeze every dollar and cut every corner, in times of disruption, the consumer is at play, and will switch loyalties for those who fail to read the tea leaves.

So how has Uber approached this golden opportunity?

So, un-valuing are they of my history of customer loyalty -- thousands of rides over 10+ years -- that Uber has literally forced me to give Lyft a shot.

It's akin to Apple so antagonizing their users that they are pushed to switch to Android.

In this specific case, while Uber was trying to con me into paying $120, the same ride was $46 on Lyft.

Imagine finding that Amazon was trying to charge you 260% for the same set of headphones as at Best Buy...would you EVER trust them again?

But, here’s the kicker. The con is even worse.

For shits and giggles, I tested the pricing query a couple miles from the airport, and guess what? The most recent $110 fare had flattened to $28.

Twenty-eight frickin bucks!

The 'Bad Boy' Among the Tech Unicorns

I have some thoughts on this. One is that Uber affirms the fact that if you want to see how it Ends, look at how it Begins.

Here, the data is really clear. Uber has always been the Unicorn Bad Boy.

Engaging drivers through aggressive promotion and incentives, then callously commoditizing their work, then cannibalizing drivers with an explicit goal of putting them out of work some day.

The same drivers whose participating made the business work, ALWAYS treated like second class citizens and disposable, man-handled with all of the goodness of employees in terms of coordination and determinism without the messiness of having to actually pay benefits, let alone their fare share of taxes.

I get the easy narrative, as I am an entrepreneur myself:

1. Disruption was often messy, so adolescence and aggression were to be expected.
2. It was the Founder’s fault. and now he’s gone.
3. Fares are higher because costs are higher.
4. Surge is more prevalent because there are less Uber drivers post pandemic.
5. Prices were subsidized in the past and now they aren’t anymore
6. Blame the algorithms. They work TOO good.

All true, but you are what you DO.

The algorithms, are only as good, moral or amoral, as the people that create them.

I am reminded of a great analogy by Kara Swisher, one of my favorite writers and thinkers, that There Must Be a Pony in Here Somewhere (because there is so much Shit).

There are only so many excuses one can stomach for bad behavior.

You are what you DO.

If it Matters, Write it Down

There is an axiom that you Manage what you MEASURE, but sometimes the truth is more basic. If something is a priority, document it by writing down.

This can be a basic as a post-it note, your favorite note taking app, checklists, Word docs, Google docs, whatever.

Pattern Recognition: The medium is less important than the discipline of writing down.

Because when you write it down, you commit to a level of specificity, which is the ultimate feedback loop for what matters, what is central and what is peripheral.

I can not tell you how many people I encounter that have great ideas, but because the simple first step of writing it down is too much discipline, their ideas never go anywhere.

That's why I say, if it matters, write it down.

Siri for Seniors: Envisioning a library of Siri actions

It took getting my dad a HomePod mini for his room in the assisted living facility he lives at to start to see Siri as much as a presence service as a media device.

The principal idea is building a Siri for senior citizens by creating and growing a library of what I call Siri actions. 

What are Siri actions?

In my line of thinking, they would be simple sequenced actions with some type of run-time functional set.

Ideally these functional sets could be extended or customized by software, including via an iPhone or Mac based front end, to set up a general class of applications that in this case would be targeted and senior citizens:

• Mental Acuity Tests
• Fitness (think: Apple Fitness + for seniors)
• Curated Assistance Care (vocabulary and caregiver network)
• Snoring Stopper (listen for snoring)
• Meditation and Mantras
• Flash Cards

How would this not be a really good thing for the aged segment, especially in the face of loss of mobility, isolation, loneliness and lack of external stimuli?

Food for thought: there are 23M Americans that are 75 years old or older so it's a huge market.

Reopening Retail: A second chance to make a first impression

Every week, the economy - and our world - opens up a bit. 

You can feel the traffic picking up on the roads.

Sports venues are even accepting fans for the first time in over a year.

The numbers look mostly good when it comes to the growing legion of the vaccinated, and the shrinking numbers when it comes to the sick, the ventilated and the dying.

For the first time in a year, there's reason for optimism.

We're vaxxed, waxed and ready to emerge from the Pandemic as our better selves

Snark and seriousness aside, this is the time, and this is the place, post-survival, having been "battle hardened" a bit; a second chance to make a first impression.

Some observations:

1. People have been in sweats and leggings for too long, which bodes well for apparel.
2. People are going to want to get into shape, which bodes well for fitness and healthy living
3. Specialty retail and specialty restaurants can recover strong given the uniqueness of their products and the retail experiences they offer.
4. The supermarket category has shined in the pandemic, which is ironic since not that long ago, conventional wisdom was that supermarkets were a doomed category once Amazon bought Whole Foods.
5. The pandemic forced retailers to develop omni-channel strategies at an accelerated rate. Post pandemic omni-channel may become a source of tension for many a retailer, as I will note below. 

In the big picture, I see a lot of pent up demand, and a full sprint back into lifestyle fortification.

The general macro indicators (rent payment, sales, store traffic) look really good, as do the aspirational indicators.

As we move into vaccine at scale, in most merchant categories retail starts to be able to support pre-pandemic store capacity levels.

Factor in the torrent of stimulus dollars, a consumer who’s pent up to get back to normal and with money to burn, and collections feel like they should only get stronger in the months ahead.

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste

But, therein lies the rub. After a year of Covid-19 related gut punch after gut punch for retail, retailers and retail shopping center owners, there is a tendency to exhale, and let down your guard, and you can understand why.  

More categories than not have been operating at a deeply reduced capacity for a year now. There is no way these businesses are generating enough sales to operate at favorable margins relative to historical levels.

Some examples. A sit-down restaurant is heavily challenged when it can only do takeout, delivery and outside seating.

A hair salon can’t generate the same revenue when social distancing mandates force the operator to cut the number of stations by 40%.

The list goes on and on AND you still have a number of tenants that still owe money from the first round of rent relief.

In such a place, it's seemingly understandable to exhale, and focus on liquidity first, and assume the consumer understands your plight, and cuts you some well earned slack.

It's nothing hardcore, but it's the mini version of death by a thousand cuts.

Offered curbside pickup? Repurpose that resource as a hostess, and only offer curbside pickup during peak hours.

Your updated store hours say 9PM (up from the pandemic's 7:30PM closing), but maybe it's slow, so you say the kitchen is closed at 8:45.

Up the prices a couple bucks here and there. Winnow portions a tiny bit.

It's not like any of this is unreasonable, not to mention that it's fiscally prudent.

Avoiding Unforced Errors

But this is a mistake for two reasons.

One is a misreading of the consumer. During the pandemic, the consumer understood that we were in battle mode.

So it wasn't business as usual, which lead to a lot of gratitude and good will from consumers to retailers for persevering, reinventing and bottom line, continuing to service the consumer.

Well, guess what? The definition of the situation has changed, and let's not forget things from the perspective of the consumer. He, her, them has endured a lot, paid sit down prices for a to go level dining experience.

The consumer just wants to get out and live a bit.

"We're vaxxed, waxed and ready to..."

My point is that the consumer will rapidly shift from understanding and acceptance, to discriminating awareness, and a re-direction of attention, engagement, dollars, regularity and retention.

The consumer just wants some ME time, and they've earned it, and are long past fatigue and understanding for sub-par experiences.

This is the second reason that giving into gravity is a big mistake. In times of upheaval, the old ways of doing things are more readily dislodged, and the consumer is open to accepting new brands, new relationships and new value propositions.

Now, more than ever is an opportunity to take inventory on the following questions:

1. What is my brand?
2. What promise or promises to the consumer underlie my brand?
3. What are the key implications in terms of service delivery?
4. What has the consumer come to expect in the post pandemic world?
5. What are the consumer's alternatives to me and how do I fare in head to head?

Be thoughtful. Ruminate on these questions. Write down your answers.

Pick them apart, edit them further, and put them back together.

What do you do more of, less of, what do you do differently in light of the above?

Then for whatever period of time that your budget will allow, explore these things in a deterministic fashion.

Do things that don't scale. Be willing to try new ideas, tweak them, rapidly iterate, figure out how to scale the winners, and dump the losers.

Embrace data as part of your going forward path into a better future, affixed in the knowledge that we Manage what we Measure.

This is the mission for forward-thinking merchants, and if you think you can't do it, remember what you did last year to get through to the present.

This is YOUR moment in time.

A second chance to make a first impression.