The Network Garden - Mark Sigal's Blog

Measuring What Matters: What's All of this Real Estate Data Good For? (Shopping Center Business)

(This article was published as part of Shopping Center Business’ Retail Insight series.)

The great paradox of the real estate business is that, on one hand, it’s the single largest asset class on the planet with a global estimate of $228 trillion, and it generates tremendous amounts of operating, financial and market-level data. On the other hand, real estate is an industry where too much of the decision-making process is done by gut, too much of the reporting process is done by spreadsheet and too few of the recurring processes leverage automation. Unfortunately, many still opt to throw humans at problems that systems have mastered.

But, the real estate game — and retail real estate, in particular — is changing. Data-driven systems are shifting the industry from the “Excel Hell” of spreadsheets to automated decision support tools based onyour data, and automated tracking and reporting systems based onyour business rules for recurring activities, including:

• Rent collections
• Retail sales tracking
• Leasing, lease renewal and deal flow analysis Proof of insurance compliance
• Consumer sentiment tracking
• Consumer location intelligence
• Portfolio acquisition and disposition analysis

When Information Scarcity Becomes Surplus

Futurist George Gilder once noted that when a formerly scarce resource suddenly becomes a surplus commodity, tremendous wealth is created through the innovation and industry transformation it fosters.

A good example of this is the role that the convergence of big data, cloud computing and mobile broadband played in the rise of Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Netflix and Uber. In each instance, these companies were not only able to create high-margin, global-reach businesses that generate tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue, but they changed our very concept of what media, communications, search/discovery, retail and transportation could be.

In the retail real estate space, these same dynamics are driving massive innovation in formerly sleepy market segments, such as property management, construction management, portfolio management, facility management and real estate agent tools. Innovation drove capital investment from venture capital and private equity to the tune of $20 billion in 2018 alone across commercial real estate segments ranging from property management and analytics to Internet of Things (IoT), construction management and real estate agent tools, according to market analyst Venture Scanner.

Extending the Reach of Property Management and Accounting Data

A common industry driver is the fact that forward-thinking shopping center owners and operators want to extend the reach of their existing property management and accounting data to all of the folks outside of accounting. These personnel need access to the data inside of MRI or Yardi, but are unlikely to log into those environments themselves. This group typically includes executives, asset managers, property managers, leasing, lease administration, legal, analysts, marketing, development, due diligence, and third-party clients and investors.

The “win” associated with embracing a data-driven system is three-fold. First, it levels the playing field inside a company so everyone has access to the same information, meaning the company can deliver better service, make fewer errors and operate at scale with one voice. In this regard, such systems become the corporate memory ensuring best practices don’t walk out the door when key employees leave. These systems also provide a path to onboard new hires systematically.

Secondly, information, such as rent, merchant sales, occupancy, budgets vs. actuals, NOI, property type, tenant type, region and key lease provisions, can be standardized and then “warehoused” in databases where it accrues over time.

Data-driven systems become push-button simple to spotlight key trends, track variances from prior periods and better benchmark performance relative to peers — both inside the company and cross-market.

Lastly, these systems are designed to ingest multiple data sources. This doesn’t simply include property management and financial data, but extends to consumer sentiment (think Yelp), location intelligence (think Google Maps or shopping center wi-fi data), marketing event data and merchant credit rating data, meaning that for the first time it is now possible to run analysis using “consolidated” data.

This approach enables portfolio owners and operators to better understand:

1. Which retailers and retail categories are the healthiest or at greatest risk based on multiple factors, including timeliness of rent payment, occupancy cost percentages being within historical ranges, credit ratings, and consumer satisfaction based on quality, service and perceived value (which can be measured to track net promoter scores).

2. Which center marketing events generate the high customer “lift” relative to non-event days at the lowest “cost per lift,” which events tend to lead to the most loyal customers and, as identified by massive mobile data patterns, which trade areas a given shopping center draws from.

3. Which properties are the greatest acquisition or disposition targets. This can be analyzed based upon relative NOI performance to the center’s peers in a given region, or by merchant health scores (for key tenants and as a composite property), co-tenancy default exposure, and the impact of consumer shopping patterns and trade area reach.

“Intelligent, Actionable Data — when coupled with Automation — changes the game.”

The above examples are based on actual applications utilized by clients and partners that work with BrightStreet Ventures portfolio companies, representing tens of billions of dollars of asset value across thousands of retail properties and tens of thousands of retailers.

Netting it out, Intelligent, Actionable Data — when coupled with automation — changes the game, and the future is here today.

The Terrible Truth About Amazon Alexa and Privacy

Adam Clark Estes of Gizmodo has written a terrific article on what the Amazon Alexa represents as a backdoor into the personal privacy of consumers.

The "money shot," which should give every Amazon Alexa owner pause is the notion that there is a microphone in your house, and you do NOT have final control over when it gets activated.

Let me repeat that. Amazon is on record as stating that they have a team of thousands that listen into excerpts of user sessions to better improve the product. That control is bound by a Terms of Service, written by Amazon, which gives Amazon a lot of latitude, which can be updated at any time, and which, by virtue of the United States having no meaningful federal protective policies when it comes to privacy, largely trusts the industry to self-police.

Also, as the article notes, and as any Alexa owner can attest, Alexa is subject to false positives where the user said something that was not intended for Alexa, but Alexa interpreted differently and recorded anyway.

This is bad, and let me tell you why. If you've been paying attention to Facebook's numerous transgressions, obfuscations and outright lies when it comes to (mis) appropriating and failing to protect consumer data (e.g., a recent $5B fine), you should know that:

1. Facebook is just an easy and obvious example of how economic self-interest can lead to some really heinous outcomes.
2. As Cambridge Analytica's mis-use of Facebook data in the 2016 election shows, it takes very little data to build a powerful profile on a consumer that is exploitable in numerous ways.
3. Security is the other side of the privacy coin, and as the joke about security breaches goes, there are two kinds of people. Those that know they've been hacked, and those that don't; the point being that most everything is hackable in some form, and the hackers are more sophisticated than those protecting against hacks, especially in the realm of the Internet of Things. Just imagine a bad actor securing programmatic control over every Alexa device, searching for certain incriminating key words, which accrue in your personal file in the cloud, and the bad outcomes that can yield (blackmail, self-incrimination, robbery, etc).
4. As a sanity check, ask yourself this. Were it the federal government wanting to a put a smart speaker in everyone's house, most people would (rightfully) lose their shit. But call it Alexa, and market it as a humanizing, pithy consumer device, and it's suddenly a stocking stuffer.

Listen, I love Amazon as much as any consumer, but I also know this indelible truth:

Digital lasts forever - like, literally - but Terms of Service only last until there's a Regime Change or a Business Model Change, and that's an asymmetry that should give every consumer serious pause.

Put another way, we all have a responsibility not to put ourselves in a place where just by living our lives as we are, we could encounter “existential risk,” and however low a probability you may attach to this calculus, it's certainly non-zero, and the potential risk is indeed existential.

Food for thought.

UPDATE: There is a new story that Google employees are eavesdropping in customer's homes via Google Home Speakers. I say it again and again. The difference between an Apple device, and a Google Home/Amazon Alexa/Facebook device is that the former does not make its money by monetizing better forms of surveillance. You have to see people and businesses in terms of their motivations. What you incent is what you reap. 

Related: Is Facebook a Brand you can Trust? (O'Reilly Radar)

Pattern Recognition: Threading as a Web Format

Being a long-time believer that Messaging is the next wave, and seeing the Tweet as an Atomic Unit, I picture Threading as a new type of Web Format. Ignited by tweet, it operates as a Stateful "Bot-Able" Machine, can instantiate Payloads, be wrapped with Handler Functions & Be Social.

The Persistence of Profiles of the Deceased

Facebook and LinkedIn suffer the affliction that when a friend or co-worker has passed away, they continue to celebrate birthdays and work anniversaries for years to come.

It has a deadening effect, and is anti-social.

Apple Pay coming to Target, Taco Bell and more top US Retail locations

Click-to-Pay is a game changer, as every Starbucks App user knows.

But, so much of it comes down to logistics in terms of making the experience friction free and "delightful" for consumers.

This is an area where the Apple end to end approach, realized here in Apple Pay, pays BIG dividends as in ~95% of the time It Just Works.

Try buying flowers online, and pay with Apple Pay. It's slick.

Read about it Apple Pay's expansion HERE.

The Everything Glasses

It feels inevitable that Apple will come out with a "Smart Glasses" offering which combines Hardware, Software, Services, Apps & Continuity across Apple Devices & Accessories.

Given the anticipated evolution of this space from AR-centric apps, to hybrid VR overlays of Physical Space to full-on Immersive VR, it feels like a bullseye for a business model where you pay a monthly fee to Apple, and the hardware upgrade are bundled in -- Hardware as a Service.

Related

1. iPhone, meet the iLens Platform
2. Four thoughts on Google's Project Glass (Augmented Reality Glasses)
3. 3D Glasses: Virtual Reality, Meet the iPhone

Datex Advanced Retail Sales Tracking

If you are a Retail Shopping Center Portfolio Owner or Manager, and still tracking the Sales Data of your merchants the old-fashioned way, then you need Datex Advanced Retail Sales Tracking. It's battle-tested, and turns your data into a competitive advantage, while making your people more productive. 

 

Seek Your Calling: Inspired by the Shoe Dog

"I'd tell men and women...not to settle for a job or a profession or even a career. Seek a calling. Even if you don't know what that means, seek it. If you're following your calling, the fatigue will be easier to beat, the disappointments will be fuel, the highs will be like nothing you've ever felt." - Phil Knight, Founder, Nike 

I just finished reading 'Shoe Dog,' the biography of Nike founder and long-time CEO, Phil Knight. It's a great story of entrepreneurship, and a fantastic, easy read.

As an entrepreneur, I can tell you there is a LOT of time spent just feeling stupid.

The mistakes, the unforced errors, the letdowns, the people disappointments, etc.

There is a tendency to assume everyone else has it figured out.

Nike is one of the most iconic brands; surely Knight figured it out long ago.

But, the truth in the reading is how many years they sat on the razor's edge, basically sales rich, cash broke, how many life threatening moments they simply did not die but easily could have.

They did not even produce their own shoes until 1971, seven years after their birth. That's also when the Nike name and swoosh logo debuted.

Air Jordans did not materialize until 20 years after their birth, and the eponymous "Just Do It" campaign, which became a rocket ship, did not appear until 1988, 24 years after their birth.  

So much of being an entrepreneur is not dying, persisting, doing better, then doing great (hopefully). So much for the notion of the "overnight success

The Lakers HEART beats again

Wow. This was a fun game. Coherency. Pace. Disrupting passing lanes. When this team leads with Defense...they definitely have some pieces. And those pieces are getting better. Case in point KCP, who has been in a slump, consistently made the momentum plays that got the Lakers going again when their backs were against the wall. Set up Nance's epic dunk.

What Happened In 2017

Great post by Fred Wilson today.

"As has become my practice, I celebrate the end of a year and the start of a new one here at AVC with back to back posts focusing on what happened and then thinking about what might happen. Today, we focus on what happened in 2017."

Read the whole thing, but here are my thoughts on Fred's post.

First and foremost, Fred should be lauded for being an honest broker of his own personal truth, all the while encouraging diverse perspectives. Anyone who has spent any time in the AVC community over the years knows the earnestness by which he cultivates these discussions.

This is such a great post, and the varying responses in the comments section show just how reflexively folks default to false dichotomies and false equivalencies. Truth is always more nuanced, a notion that struggles mightily in the age of social media.

As to Crypto, and the analogs to Internet 1.0/2.0, the good news for most of us coming "late" to the party, is that the party really hasn't started yet. Sure, there are multitudes that will make massive "coin" on speculation and mania, but as the prior periods show, real infrastructure will get built, real industries will rise and real businesses will take flight.

The ascendant periods are decade plus in nature, so focus on what is real and take a real time horizon, and the notion of "missed opportunities" goes away.

As to applicable use cases, borderless/decentralized markets, micro currencies, micro incentives, programmable currencies, validated identity, verified general ledger are all areas ripe for innovation. Don't fall prey to reducing this to the Pets.com analog of delivering dog food at a loss via the Internet. You'll miss the next Amazon.

Re the end of White Male Dominance, I am not as sanguine that this is really happening. For one, the reflexive response by a number of folks to the very term "White Male Dominance" is emblematic that the resistance is tough. The number of white males that believe it is **they** who are being discriminated against speaks to how institutionalized this is.

If you watch Fox News as your primary mouthpiece, you are NEVER hearing the concept of sexism, racism or hate as a real problem, and let's face it, the power of tribalism in our country is extreme.

If anything, the moral of the story is that **demographically** speaking, this is the end of White Male Dominance, but unless the Majority can organize and build working coalitions focused on actual policy, this is just a rallying cry for Trump's 2020 re-election campaign.

Finally, as to the Tech Backlash, I'd say I hope so. There is a simultaneous lack of accountability in the tech business (as was the case with Wall Street before it), the blind notion that if it can be built it should, and a general amorality of the leaders of these tech companies.

I find it laughable that so many reflexively dismiss the impact that Facebook, Twitter and Google had on an election where the outcome was shaped by very few **counties** in very few states. Given the ease by which 2016 showed how a motivated alien party (Russia) could micro target highly charged, often verifiability false messages to tens of millions of people, should trouble everyone.

If it was your home, school, church, workplace or community center, wouldn't you at least want to **know** if the back door was left unlocked for would-be evil doers? I sure would, and do.

The fact that Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai and Jack Dorsey have shown no ethical sense of responsibility to govern their platforms against hate, discrimination and divisiveness speaks to a lack of accountability.

A final thought about disruption is that if history teaches us anything, it's that in the long run, disruption creates far more jobs than it disrupts, but in the short run, the disruption is catastrophic for the disrupted AND the nature of the disruption is uneven, with real losers for which a better tomorrow (seemingly) never comes.

This is where real safety nets are critical, and our lazy notions of capitalism "good," government "bad" needs its own version of 2.0 thinking.

Happy New Year everyone. :-)

My iPhone X Pre-order Debacle: Apple resorts to 'airline level' truthiness

Securing a pre-order reservation for the new iPhone X should have been a "golden ticket" winning moment.

I did my part, staying up late along with countless others rushing to purchase a $1K+ device sight unseen.

But then Apple ran into system issues connecting with my mobile carrier (one of the big two carriers), an issue that affected LOTS of would-be buyers, something subsequently confirmed by the multiple reps that I would speak with at Apple.

Fortunately, Apple had a plan for this scenario, and to my delight, my browser confirmed that an iPhone X was reserved for me, complete with a verified reservation number. Woot!

The message stated that once systems were up and running, I would get a confirmation email, and a click path to complete my order. Double Woot!!

I went to sleep delighted, and woke up the next morning relieved to see, first the confirming email, then a second email that provided the clickable link to complete my order, with the caveat that the order needed to be completed within the next twenty four (24) hours.

The Most Un-Apple of Experiences

Then, the nuttiness began. It would result in more technical issues, culminating in five separate calls (~4 hours of hold and talk time), broken promises, utter double speak by Apple representatives, and finally, the equivalent of a "go pound sand" message from Apple reps, began.

In other words, the most un-Apple of experiences. 

Imagine delight turning to angst, then anxiety, when Apple's link fails to recognize the pairing of my Reservation Number with my Mobile Phone number. Surely, this is a temporary issue.

After several more tries over the next couple of hours, and with the 24 hour clock ticking, I reach out to Apple support.

First, I get a clueless rep, who keeps telling me to start a new order, all the while I'm explaining that this makes no sense, as I'd lose my Reservation, and asking to speak to her manager.

Her manager is texting her as we speak, but refuses to actually speak with me, so I push to escalate, at which point, I get routed to "Jamie" who tells me that Apple knows about these issues, but is overwhelmed with demand, and will resolve this. 

He, in turn, confirms that he sees the same issue when he tries to input my Reservation Number and pair it with my Mobile Number.

He takes my number, and assures me that he'll call back, but never does. Forty five minutes wasted.

With the clock continuing to tick away, I call back more assertively, and get routed to "Jason" in a different customer care group, who gives me confidence that the team is working on these issues.

He gives me a direct number to call including his extension, and pledges to get back to me within the next few hours, noting that the iPhone team is taking a few hours on these cases.

He grabs my device ID, confirms that he's seeing the same issue, confirms that the phone number I am calling him on is the same that I am trying to register the iPhone with, and I am on my way.

Another ninety (90) minutes spent. It's Friday, late afternoon.

Alas, Jason never calls back, and so I call him. Much to my chagrin, I discover that the extension does NOT work.

What. The. Fuck.

I try repeatedly on Saturday, with no luck, as my Reservation expires.

Apple isn't going to screw me, are they?

Sunday I call the number they've provided but avoid the direct extension, and get connected with "Breeana," who is very nice, apologetic, reiterates that this is an issue affecting lots of people, and assures me that Apple's intention is to honor these reservations.

When I reference Jason, she assures that I am talking to the right person, someone senior to her. She gives me her ID, as I am losing faith.  

Another 30 minutes wasted on this cluster-fuck.

Late Sunday rolls around, and still no word from Jason, so I call again, and I connect with "Steven," who affirms what everyone else has said. Apple is working on system issues, they under-resourced and are overwhelmed with demand, but plan to do right by customers, and honor these Reservations.

He encourages me to be patient, and gives me a direct number, which I attempt to call using a different phone, given past issues, and confirm to him that it does not work.

Somewhat sheepishly, he says that Apple has probably turned off the number since they are overwhelmed with demand. So lame. 

Apple Double-Speak: The Bullshit Edition

Tuesday PM, I finally get a call from Jason, who sidesteps why he never called me back, but simply says that this is the first day he has been back in the office.

He tells me that the iPhone team has not been able to complete the link up with my carrier (it's one of the big two, so this is neither exotic, nor complex), and since they can't validate the phone number and carrier linkup, the word from the iPhone team is that I need to reach out to my carrier, and work from there. 

I tell him that what he's saying makes no sense since Apple provided the phone, he has the ID of my iPhone, which I previously provided, and it's specific to the carrier.

Plus, he is literally talking to me on the same phone number that I am trying to get the iPhone X for. There is no missing piece of data in this equation.

I tell him that this is bullshit since Apple has all of the detail they need to **know** the phone number I am trying to transfer and the phone I am trying to transfer from is specific to the carrier. 

He apologizes, but says that this is what the iPhone team is telling him.

I tell him that this is akin to the type of nonsense airlines do when they cancel flights or oversell seats, and rather than take care of the customer, leave the customer twisting in the wind.

I ask to speak to the iPhone team, but Jason says they are not a "customer facing" team.

I tell him that pushing me off to the carrier means that I will lose my Reservation, and instead of getting my phone pre-order as expected on 11/3, the wait time is now 5-6 weeks.

That is flat out shitty service, and I tell him that Apple needs to do better here. After all, I've bought a dozen iPhones over the years, countless iPads, iPods, AirPods, Apple TV's, Macs, etc.

He puts me on hold, and after another 7-8 minutes, says he's been told there's nothing more Apple can do for me.

Another 30 minutes of my life that I will never get back, and an Insanely Not Great experience with Apple, who has chosen not to honor my Reservation, and sent me to the end of the line.

The Inevitability of CRYPTO MARKETS taking flight and the Amazon case

I am sure that this will seem obvious in retrospect, but EVERY marketplace should be able to cultivate a value add cryptocurrency strategy.

Think, for example, of how many levels Amazon could one day build micro strategy "tiers" around.

The easy ones that come to mind are:

• Amazon Prime
• Sell on Amazon
• Amazon Web Services
• Amazon Devices (Kindle, Fire, Alexa)
• Private Label (Amazon Basics)

Amazon Coins could be doled out according to Levels of Engagement, Loyalty, Promotion or Revenue Generation.

For Amazon, it's an opportunity to be a Market Maker in MONEY, providing Exchange services at varying rates for: A) Cash; B) Amazon Goods and Services; and C) Digital Goods.

To be clear, Amazon is just one fleshed out example.

All marketplace builders should bake crypto into their strategies from the get go.

Do you agree, or have a different perspective?

Animojis are Real Time Motion Capture 1.0

Animojis are the 1.0 version of Real Time Motion Capture.

It’s easy to see how these grow into Persona Apps, and how this all scales to 3.0 experiences.

After all, Apple knows Lens, Capture and Display as software, hardware and service layers.

10 Things I liked about Apple's iPhone Event

Watching the Apple Event to Announce the New iPhones, I was struck by the following:

1. Only Apple can do what Apple does not only because they're integrated, but because each component piece is fully realized, and their is a very clear narrative focus on what outcomes the device and specific set of capabilities enable.
2. The new narrative builds heavily on the sense of AI and being Neural, with Neural element harnessing device level capabilities.
3. Apple harnesses camera and sensory capture to create the kind of visual experiences that were once duty bound to high end, professional grade, predominantly analog equipment.
4. Augmented Reality is one area where the company is simultaneously putting a stake asserting its intent to lead the market and make it strategic through AR Kit, and the kind of hardware, silicon, software and services that are part of a very robust system.
5. Face ID is a holy shit, WTF notion. For one, it is always on. For another, that means it is always watching you, noting only taking a fingerprint of the contours of your face, but watching how it changes over time. Establishing that from a security standpoint, whereas Touch ID was a 1 in 50,000 change of someone having the same fingerprint as you, Face ID is a 1 in 1 million value proposition. The notion that Face ID is 20X more secure than Touch ID is a "stop the film" and discuss. This makes the idea of Face ID working with Apple Pay logical, but super cool just the same.
6. Animojis feel like they could be a wedge into being a new form of personal communications.
7. AirPower and the way that iPhones, AirPods and Apple Watches will be able to charge when resting on a paid, and the user experience around same is well thought out.
8. Phil Schiller is the bridge to Steve Jobs, and he is nothing but earnest and sincere in his approach. Such a good presenter. In that same regard, Tim Cook did great, as did Craig Federighi. Today's Apple is more like a classic rock band, where Performance matters, and each presented gets to perform a solo.
9. Jony Ive only seems to exists in these events, as the commercial (WATCH THE IPHONE X VIDEO - WOW) that synthesizes what Apple has just built. I am not sure what this means but minimally, one hopes he can live on as an Animoji.
10. Segmentation is an Apple Advantage. To do what Apple does, they have to make major bets of silicon, supporting accessories, system assembly and fabrication, and then get the developer tools, the software, the marketplaces and channels right. But, boy, look at how they leverage it (see below). From the low end, small form factor iPhone SEE to the futuristic, likely production constrained iPhone X, this is textbook segmentation.

(IDEATION) SampleCoin: Sample, Overlay and Play as a Shared Service

Let me paint a picture. Between the Cameras in our mobile devices, the Media we consume and can readily call upon via a Google Search, and whatever Apple comes out with to cover the eyes - iLens - and the fact that the Cloud is pretty much ever-functioning, what once was impossible to effort is now push button simple and "bottomless." 

Now, imagine a Video Sampling service that can sample from ANY source, has powerful cropping tools, and can then encapsulate the sample by wrapping it in an "Overlay Player."

Because this is an Overlay, it can run independent of the Sample and Extended as a Shared Service. As a Shared Service, the sample could by part of your Library, Socially Shared and Conjoined by Conversational Threading.  

It could be the Ignition Code of Different Types of Apps (e.g., Messaging Apps), and/or the Sample can be served up as Chum for Machine Learning.

In such an environment, you could see a robust marketplace of content creators and editors form. One way to reward community participation is by creating cryptocurrency in the form of community-specific tokens, or sample coins (SampleCoin).

There are numerous ways that you can reward participation, incent loyalty and give participants the lure of upside in a domain specific store of value.